I get really emotional about the draft. Maybe it’s the fact that I do so much to get to know these players in the year leading up to the draft that I get attached to the ideas of certain players coming here to do certain things. Whatever it is, I get really worked up and angry about some picks right after their name drops. Sometimes I’ll take 10 minutes, or a day or two to come to my senses and realize it’s actually not so bad. I mean, Coach Belichick is only 151-57 in regular season games as a Patriot… it’s almost like he knows more about football than I do.

This time I took 2 weeks. Two weeks. Because it was just that kind of draft.

I hope my criticisms look stupid over time. I hope my optimism is rewarded. At the end of the day I’d rather have a 4th Super Bowl ring than have the “Told Ya So” crown of cool bloggers that no one reads or cares about. But until these guys hit the field, in my humble opinion, no one has the right to tell me that I’m wrong.

Jamie Collins – OLB/DE Southern Miss

Positives:
I don’t think Collins sucks. In fact I had him starred in my Combine notes and statistically he was great with 16.5 sacks in his last 2 seasons at Southern Miss. I was surprised to hear his name called so early, but I don’t think he sucks. His background is intriguing in a very Belichick kind of way. In high school he was 1st team All State as a quarterback/linebacker. When he went to Southern Miss he was actually originally was slated as a defensive back. He’s scheme diverse and has a lot of experience dropping into coverage. That doesn’t necessarily mean I’d trust him covering Percy Harvin, but he’s done it and that’s a lot more than most DE’s can say coming out of college. What I like the most about him is that he’s strong at the point of attack and has a violent disengage ability that a lot of pass rushers don’t have. Plus he managed an 11″7′ long jump which is incredible if it’s actually worth anything in football.

Negatives:
While he doesn’t suck I kind of don’t get where he fits in this defense. People who are raving about this pick don’t really seem to have an answer for that either. Another way of saying “scheme diverse” is “tweener.” I thought he looked like a textbook 3-4 OLB when I first starting watching him, and apparently the Patriots scouts thought the same. Rumor has it, from Draft Insider, that Belichick and the scouts disagreed on Collins who the scouts had marked as a 3rd day pick.

At Southern Miss he played a mix of four point and two point stance, a lot of times finding success lining up on a TE or wide of the LT. If you’re looking to twin tower him opposite Chandler Jones at the end of a base 4-3 front I think there’s going to be more of a learning curve that people want to admit. If you’re looking to put him at outside linebacker you have reason to be encouraged with his 4.64 40 time. Lateral movement isn’t really his strongpoint though. When asked to change direction on the fly he’s very flat footed and heavy. For an incredible athlete he can be made to look very un-athletic at times.

Grade: B-
I’m trying to stay optimistic with Collins. Truthfully he had almost identical statistical production to last year’s 3rd round pick Jake Bequette who did it against better competition and still wasn’t good enough to crack the roster as a rookie. Also the Bengals took the much higher rated Margus Hunt with the next pick making me think it’s going to be Carlos Dunlap all over again. I don’t think a 2nd round pick on Collins is too soon but I liked Hunt’s skillset better. For now I’m waiting to see him on the field in training camp.

Aaron Dobson – WR Marshall

Positives: I was honestly dreading this pick and it was a nightmare watching it happen in real life. But there are positives and the more I watch Dobson the more I want to see him succeed. One positive thing that jumps right out at me are that Dobson’s feet are fast. His transitions are maybe better than Cordarrelle Patterson or Justin Hunter or some of the guys ranked a lot higher than him. The way his feet move look like an NFL receiver. In fact his footwork reminds me of a talented former Patriot, but this certain illiterate wife beater will go unnamed as not to jinx our guy Dobson. He’s big and beefy for such a tall fast player. A lot of players his size have really narrow lower bodies that you’re just waiting to see snap. Not the case with Dobson. You could tell me he was an undersized outside linebacker and I’d maybe believe it. The Marshall product plays with some fire and has all the physical attributes of an X receiver.

Above all Belichick trusts him to pick up the Erhardt-Perkins offense which can basically wipe half your potential WR’s off the board. In fact really wanted Cordarrelle Patterson until I heard him speak in an interview and didn’t think he had the brainpower to learn the McDaniels playbook. His former coaches have come forward since the draft to rave about his intelligence. If he can line up properly he’ll be miles ahead of a lot of big name veterans who have pretended to be Patriots.

Negatives:
The buzz on Dobson has been his potential, his amazing potential and how he still hasn’t lived up to it, and how everyone is just waiting for him to break through that wall and burst out. He had a bad quarterback. He had an ankle injury that cost him 2 games. Trust me he’s going to break out any second. Right? You can give me the potential speech until I die but I just can’t shake the feeling like 3 years from now we’ll all still be talking about Dobson’s potential and how he’s 1 season away from unlocking it. The same way Ben Watson was always a season away from breaking out, or Brandon Tate just needed a little more time to come into his own. No matter how many times I look at his 40 and listen to the singing praise from the internet about “thank god BB choose the obscure pick we all closed our eyes and agreed on at random” I can’t help but think this is Taylor Price (big fast underexposed WR who would have flourished with a better QB supposedly) re-packaged as a 2nd round pick.

The people gushing about his hands are the people who are watching Youtube highlight reels. He dropped more routine passes right off his hands or his chest than almost any of the highly ranked wideouts I looked at in this class. He’s never cracked 700 yards in 4 years at Marshall and only registered over 5 touchdowns once (a 12 touchdown season in 2011). In 10 games his senior year Dobson managed only one 100+ yard game. And for everyone still raving about his Senior Bowl practice, I’ve seen that practice footage and I was less that blown away. Also do you know how many receptions Dobson had in the actual Senior Bowl. Check out the box score if you’re curious. If you don’t time for box scores it was ZERO. That also combines for zero yards.

If you’re sick of hearing negative feedback on Dobson then what do you want me to do? Ignore the Pats flaky history of developing wide receivers? Ignore the stats and the drops and the game tape? What do you want from me?

Grade: D
Belichick says he’s smart. If he can learn the playbook and be on the field long enough to make a difference I’ll be thrilled and I’ll shut up. Rest assured I will cheer this kid on harder and louder than everyone else and root for him to make an asshole out of me. I hope my negative assessment of him lives on in infamy and 10 years from now looks as dumb as Ron Borges opining on the Richard Seymour draft. But for now I have him pegged as someone else’s priority free agent washout in 2016 and the Pats will be back to drawing board looking for a wide receiver again. Welcome to the family Dobson, but I’ve got my doubts.

Logan Ryan – CB Rutgers

Pick number one of the Rutgers Graduate Physical Education Co-Op formerly known as the New England Patriots.

Positives: Ryan might not be McCourty but he’s got D-Mac’s physical style. He was a 2 year starter at Rutgers and produced right away: 7 interceptions 30 passes broken up in his 2 seasons as a starter. That’s not a typo: thirty, three zero. That’s really impressive considering there are 1st round corners that never even come close to double digit PBU’s. The Rutgers D had Ryan on an island a lot of the time so opposing QB’s were probably more apt to throw in his direction with no safety help over the top, so he saw plenty of action.

He’s a big lanky corner that makes the Ras-I Dowling waiting game a lot less suspenseful. Ryan is a formidable replacement for Dowling who basically got a whiff of the Foxboro grass and immediately tore every ligament in his lower body. Ryan played 26 straight games as a Scarlet Knights starter and has no sketchy injury history. If Dowling can’t pull it together this year then they’ve got another option.

Negatives: When the island approach went well, it went well. When it didn’t Ryan got burned for some deep touchdowns. He’s not as well composed as some of the other higher ranked corners in this year’s class. By that I mean he plays a lot of catchup and doesn’t show a consistent ability to get his eyes back to the quarterback. That’s something that has killed Patriots DB’s for years and years now and he absolutely has to make that his first priority. Otherwise he’s just a PI factory in the making.

Grade: B-

I cursed out loud when this pick first came in but I’ve opted to chill out and look at it in perspective. The next corner off the board was USF’s Kayvon Webster who I judged as a zone specific corner with a 5th round grade at highest. Miami got a decent value on Jamar Taylor at 54, and I’d compare Ryan’s skillset to his so logically Ryan is a good value at 83. We needed another corner somewhere in this draft and I went on record saying I didn’t like any of the 2nd round graded corners (Banks, Slay, Wilson, etc). I can’t sit here and say we need to draft a corner but they need to get a first rounder in the 3rd round. It doesn’t work like that. So they needed the best available corner and I do believe they got him.

Duron Harmon – Safety Rutgers

Positives – In 2009 Belichick used a 2nd round pick on a German offensive lineman from the University of Houston that most people had never heard of, and most agreed he could have gotten him in the 5th round. In 2010 he used a first round pick on a corner from Rutgers who wasn’t the highest ranked corner available and was slated as a late 2nd rounder. In 2011 he used a third round pick on an underexposed back from LSU that most thought was a 5th or 6th round pick. In 2012 he threw a 2nd round pick away on the 9th ranked FS on the board.

The results: a 2nd team All-Pro RT, an AFC Defensive ROY, a 1,200+ yard double digit TD running back, and a pretty good safety in the making.

I will give Belichick the full benefit of the doubt on Harmon despite knowing almost nothing about him when he was picked. From the little I’ve seen of him he actually looks like he has decent instincts, tackles well and does what he’s supposed to do. He ran a 4.51 which is a pretty good time for an unknown safety.

Negatives: This is another pick that Draft Insider said Belichick chose to override his scouts on, and apparently it didn’t go over too well. 91st overall for a player on absolutely no one’s radar. That’s the negative here and that’s what still burns me up about this pick. The next player taken was Stedman Bailey. I’ll talk about Bailey more in a minute and how that will probably come back to haunt us.

Also: In 2009 Belichick spent a 2nd round pick on a DT from Boston College that was graded as a 4th round pick. In 2010 he spent a 3rd round pick on an under performing WR from the University of Ohio. In 2011 he used up a 5th round pick on a TE from Marshall that most people thought couldn’t catch. In 2012 he blew a 3rd round pick on a DE from Arkansas that was graded as a 6th rounder.

The Results: Gone, Out of the NFL, Cut before week 1, practice squad.

Grade: A++++
Sometimes I think Belichick drafts players that he could have just as easily found as an UDFA just to give them something to live up to. Sometimes it works out and other times you’re sitting there wondering why he even drafted a DB from TCU that never played a single down in coverage in his incredibly short FBS career who everyone knew has NO CHANCE to make the roster. I figure I might as well like a random draft strategy like this since I can’t do anything about it. A-Quadruple-Plus it is because I want to be on the ground floor of this one when it all works out.

Josh Boyce – WR TCU

Positive – He’s really really ridiculously fast.

Negative – As far as build and style of play I considered Boyce to be similar to WVU’s Stedman Bailey. You could put either on the outside or in the slot and trust them with a variety of routes. Boyce is bigger heavier but still faster in a straight line. But I thought Bailey’s ability to transition was noticeably superior, and he definitely came off as the tougher and more physical of the two. Basically I thought Bailey was a born fit for the Patriots and I stupidly fell in love with the idea of drafting him. You could argue Boyce was the value pick but was he really? Bailey went one pick after Duron Harmon in the 3rd who, realistically, would have probably been on the board for quite some time.

Maybe the Pats saw Bailey’s BFF Geno Smith going to the Jets and didn’t think he’d fit here. Maybe they looked at Bailey and thought he couldn’t learn the offense. That’s the kind of X factor that those of us outside of Belichick and the scouts will never know. But TCU runs a notoriously silly read-option offense that isn’t anything like the Patriots either. In fact if you look at the list of active TCU alums in the NFL you’ll see almost exclusively linebackers and DBs with only 5 offensive players (including OL Marcus Cannon and QB Andy Dalton) and 1 lone receiver: the Jets Jeremy Kerley.

Grade: C+
I’m extremely curious/excited to see what Boyce looks like on the field with Brady and what they have planned for him. I’m skeptical of his ability to play on the perimeter. If you’re the kind of person who looks at 40 times and starts screaming “Deep threat! Deep threat!” like you tried to Ouija board Al Davis and got possessed by a poor drafting lunatic there’s a lot more to playing on the outside than just running fast. I’m puzzled at how they’re going to use him, and I think opposing DCs are as well.

Michael Buchanan DE – Illinois

Positive: Buchanan was a player I heard quite a few mentions of as a mid-round pick throughout the draft process. I think he was definitely the most intriguing player on the board at the time so by in large I was pleased with the pick. He was a 4 star recruit out of high school, and part of a well recruited group by Ron Zook that somehow still couldn’t keep him from losing his job. Like Collins he’s another guy who fits that prototypical 3-4 OLB mold. Maybe this means they’re adding another layer to their improving defense? He’s a good run defender who has a nice developing assortment of pass rush techniques.

In 2011 he was the counterpart to Texans 1st round pick Whitney Mercilus. The two of the combined for 23 sacks (7 of them belonging to Buchanan). If he had kept up that pace some say he might have been considered a first round pick. He didn’t, and dropped his sack total to 4.5 in a weak senior year prompting a big slide in draft stock. Still if he performs strongly in training camp then he immediately makes Jake Bequette obsolete and not a moment too soon IMO. If he needs a dominant pass rusher opposite him to succeed then he might end up being used like Mark Anderson a few years back as a passing situation specialist opposite the emerging Chandler Jones.

Negative: There are other reasons Buchanan slid down the board besides just missing Mercilus. His first step isn’t anything special. He posted a 4.78 at 255 lbs which is decent but less than stunning as well. His junior year, when he did his best work, he was playing in the 240′s. He put on extra bulk and it has maybe slowed him down a little. Still, there was once a DE from Purdue named Rob Ninkovich who ran a 4.80 40 and he ended up making a few plays for us.

Grade: B+

The Patriots have great D-line coaches who, contrary to popular belief, have been getting solid production out of much less talented players than Buchanan (Tully Banta-Cain anyone?). If he’s coachable and works hard I don’t see how he doesn’t turn out to be a steal if not marginally productive.

Steve Beauharnais – LB Rutgers

Positives: Another Rutgers player and another former highschool QB/Linebacker (and also played RB). That’s not a bad trend at all. I guess the Rutgers thing makes sense: shaky draft class so Belichick drafts the guys he has the most intel on.

Beauharnais was originally slotted as a mid round pick but was overlooked for reasons I’ll discuss in a minute. The Pats linebacker group is strong but not necessarily deep. He’ll be competing to take a spot away from either Jeff Tarpinian or Mike Rivera both of which contributed well on special teams but were obvious liabilities anytime they were asked to actually make plays. Mel Kiper raved about his ability to tackle. He wasn’t crazy productive at anything at Rutgers but he’s a decent enough fundamental football player to make me optimistic.

Negatives: I’m typically very weary of guys with big differences between their Combine and Pro Day 40′s. He ran a 4.84 in Indianapolis and a 4.67 at the Rutgers pro day. Maybe he had an injury that wasn’t disclosed. A little more worrisome was the fact that he weighed in 6 pounds lighter at his Pro Day than at the Combine (240 vs 234). He’s reportedly had big fluctuations in his weight over the years and was about 225 coming out of high school. I was really hoping to get a linebacker that could cover the middle of the field and be insurance on Dane Fletcher. If that guy who ran a 4.84 shows up on week 1 that just isn’t going to happen.

Grade: B-
I’ve raved about him before and I’ll do it again: Harold Nash is the best S&C coach in the league. If anyone is going to get this weight issue under control it’s him. Much like Buchanan there wasn’t anyone especially exciting on the boards besides maybe that British triathlete guy who had never even played football before. We all knew that would never happen. I don’t mind this pick at all even if he does finalize the New England Scarlet Knights formerly known as the Rutgers Graduate Physical Educational Co-Op formerly known as the New England Patriots.

TAKE

Tyrann Mathieu CB – LSU
Build: 5-9 194 lbs
40 Time: 4.50 (Pro Day)
Early Projection: 2-5 (Mortensen says 3rd round)
Years Started: 2
Patriots Fit: Nickel Corner / FS
Relevant Stats:

As an early disclaimer, the LSU DB I really want is Craig Loston but I have to wait at least another year to see him draft eligible.

I’m almost regretting this even as I say the words… Yes, let’s draft Tyrann Mathieu. Why not? I mean if that wasn’t a rhetorical question I guess you could say: because he’s done almost every single thing wrong since the 2011 BCS Championship game. He got kicked out of LSU. He didn’t bother to catch on anywhere else. He didn’t develop any upper body strength in preparation for the Combine. He didn’t fully convince anyone beyond Deion Sanders that his pot smoking and partying days were behind him. And as of yesterday he was already involved in a PR mess over an after party that hasn’t even happened yet.

And all that’s before getting to the fact that he’s undersized, isn’t a lock in man coverage, and is inconsistent in his tackling.

You can be 5’9″ and be a DB in the NFL. Antoine Winfield is 5’9″. Troy Polamalu is 5’10″. Bob Sanders was 5’10″. You can be undersized and play corner in the NFL. Just not for the Patriots. LSU almost never used Mathieu as an outside corner and the Patriots couldn’t get away with it either. He’d have to be a nickel corner, a safety or some kind of X-factor weapon in a sub package. The subs are where the Patriots have gotten beat up consistently on defense for years now and adding Mathieu would give them a nasty, relentless playmaker to insert. Right now teams come up with ways to get the Patriots into their sub packages to take advantage of them. If the Honey Badger lives up to his potential he gives opposing OC’s something else to think about.

This is the only player on the board that I’ll spend more time talking about in theory than anything. You have to. You have to keep in mind everything he did: being a Heisman finalist, breaking the school’s FF record, unanimous voting to the All America team… he did as a sophomore. All I know is that when I saw this guy play in the BCS Championship 2 years ago I couldn’t stop watching him. He was fast in transition, disruptive across the middle of the field, and gave bigger receivers hells. He wasn’t afraid of Alabama for one minute and they knew it.

LEAVE

Blidi Wrehn Wilson CB – UConn
Build: 6-1 195 lbs
40 Time: 4.45 (Combine)
Early Projection: 2-3
Years Started: 2 1/2 (missed most of 2011 with a knee injury)
Patriots Fit: #2 CB / Nickel Corner
Relevant Stats:

I realize how stupid this sounds. Passing on a guy with a prototypical corner build, would have been a 3 year starter, a team MVP, and an impressive 40 for Tyrann Mahtieu. Wilson doesn’t suck. He’s a second round projection who would have been a 4th rounder in last years draft in my eyes though. The reports on his coverage tendencies have been all over the place. From what I’ve seen of him he’s a man coverage corner but one that doesn’t finish his plays. From what I’ve seen he’s one of those “wide receivers that can’t catch” type of CB sterotypes. Look at the game he had against Louisville. You’ll figure out pretty quick why he had 9 PBUs but only 1 INT.

His instincts aren’t bad at all. In fact they’re pretty good. His ball skills are pretty rough and he’s something of a liability in the run game. I played pretty close attention to both him and fellow Huskie Dwayne Gratz in the Senior Bowl practice. Both of them had a hard time adapting to press coverage. Wilson got exploited by Markus Wheaton, Marquise Goodwin and the faster receivers. To be fair Goodwin torched the majority of the Senior Bowl DBs, but there’s a lacking physical tenacity of Wilson’s game that’s too lax for my taste in the Patriots secondary.

SLEEER

Kayvon Webster CB – South Florida
Build: 5-11 195 lbs
40 Time: 4.41 (Combine)
Early Projection: 6-FA
Years Started: 2 1/2
Patriots Fit: #2 CB / Nickel Corner
Relevant Stats:

Belichick goes to USF every year and almost never signs anyone. So I wouldn’t go crazy that he worked out Webster. I’m pretty sure he just likes to go fishing down there or something that’s fun in a curmudgeon-y Belichick way. But I’m intrigued any time a corner leads a team in tackles, which Webster did with 82 solo takedowns as a senior. He’s a zone corner who wasn’t asked to play a lot of man coverage but he’s physical and plays with some electricity. He grabbed the attention of the Panthers and Dolphins who both brought him in for workouts after he ran a 4.41 at the Combine.

Worst case scenario he’s another option to play with and a cause to dump Malcolm Williams. Rivals had him as the 28th ranked safety in the nation out of high school and he was pretty heavily recruited by Miami. His pedigree at safety explains his style of play, and makes him a candidate to move his position in the pros. He’s been mentored by former USF corner Mike Jenkins, a way underrated corner who has been bounced around the league and I’ve always felt could have easily been a starter on some former Pats rosters.

With a day until the draft there isn’t much we can do here at Patskrieg central beyond panic triple re-examine every player we’ve been looking at meticulously every day since the start of the 2012 college season. I’ve decided to take it by position and start churning through players I have linked to the Patriots via the tireless efforts of NEPatriotsDraft Walterfootball and various other sources, and offer who I’d like, who I’d rather not take and why.

Starting off is a classic Belichick-ean case of finding the clone version of a more popular player that I’ve been eyeballing for a while.

TAKE

Josh Evans S – Florida
Build: 6-1 207 lbs
40 Time: 4.54 (Combine)
Early Projection: 3-5
Years Started: 2
Patriots Fit: FS-SS
Relevant Stats:

A few months ago everyone with a keyboard was predicting Florida’s Matt Elam would fall to the Pats at 29. I say not so fast. Belichick has long been a fan of finding a player’s more affordable equivalent. In this case I’d like to propose looking at Elam’s partner in the Gator secondary. Evans has a similar build, similar speed, similar production, a better vertical leap and maybe plays with a little more composure than Elam. Don’t get me wrong I like Elam’s divebomber approach to playing safety.

In a class of drag down tacklers and slap fighters Evans isn’t afraid to get low and wrap up on a ball carrier. The Gators liked to us him in run support a lot. That doesn’t mean he can’t cover. His back pedal is nice and low where a lot of DB’s upwards of 6 ft tend to get high and stiff. It helps him hit his breaks faster and make a move on a ball.

His athletic resume just goes on and on. His senior year of high school he rushed for over 1,400 yards and had 7 INTs as a DB. All this was while winning the state track championship competing in the hurdles, relay and the high jump. A quote straight off the UF website jumped out at me when former coach Urban Meyer said of him; “Josh Evans is a perfect example of guys that were really not very good players in the spring and all of the sudden, after full weeks of learning how to practice and how to do it our way, we are seeing a completely different player.” Knowing the Belichick/Meyers connection I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Evans be the 3rd round pick or show up somewhere in this draft.

LEAVE

Phillip Thomas S – Fresno State
Build: 6-1 208 lbs
40 Time: 4.53 (Pro Dau)
Early Projection: 2-3
Years Started: 2
Patriots Fit: SS
Relevant Stats:

Thomas is an intriguing prospect in a lot of respects. He was a consensus All American. He has some man cover skills, and he came back from a season ending injury to have a statistically impressive year in 2012. That’s going to gain him a lot of looks as a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Altogether, I’m afraid I’d have to put Thomas in the same category as D.J. Swearinger of physically talented players that lack the consistency that I look for in an NFL safety. He’s the kind of player that will make a pick six one minute and then whiff on a tackle or get burnt the next play. It’s tough for me to say if this a case of poor instincts or just trying to do too much at once. Either way look at the way he struggles taking down ball carriers from Oregon’s spread offense:

Given, Oregon has made a lot of teams look bad over the years. Thomas has all the physical tools but I just can’t root for a guy with such poor tacking skills to join the Patriots secondary. It goes against everything this team has strived to put together for years now. That goes for Swearinger too. I’ve never seen a guy get so much praise for missing tackles while trying to make a big hit. Give me a solid tackling DB or give me death.

SLEEPER
John Boyett S – Oregon
Build: 5-11 205 lbs
40 Time: 4.57 (Pro Day)
Early Projection: 5-7
Years Started: 2
Patriots Fit: SS-FS
Relevant Stats:

At the moment I have no known connection between the Patriots and Boyett. If this was a year ago I’d say you could count on Belichick’s relationship with Chip Kelly to get some information, but I guess that’s over with. If Boyett recovers physically he’s the full package in a raw safety prospect. He missed just about all of 2012 when he found out he had 2 torn patellar tendons. He impressed enough in 2011 to earn a 2013 Combine invite but wasn’t well enough to work out for scouts until the middle of April. Admittedly he still isn’t 100% and anyone who drafts him will probably have to PUP him for the offseason.

Still he’s fast, physical and isn’t shy about contact. If he goes undrafted I’d say he’s a priority free agent pickup.

I’ve been pouting like a total baby all offseason for the Patriots to take advantage of this deep bountiful wide receiver class. I’d like one in the first round and if I don’t get it I expect a Jerry Jones style tantrum that I expect I’ll be ashamed of immediately after and I don’t care. If the buzz on Tavon Austin is real he’ll be gone in the first half of the draft. That leaves three first round worthy picks on the board in the form of DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Justin Hunter. To choose between any of them they still have to be there. So here’s some thinking out loud I attempted to figure out the Patriots chance at landing any of them.

Threats to steal a receiver:

• 17. Steelers – The Steelers lost Mike Wallace at the start of free agency. Currently their depth chart goes something like: Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, Plaxico Burress… and IMO that’s where you stop talking. BUT There has been a ton of information linking them to Jarvis Jones and the Steel have always been about their defense and they got Wallace in the 3rd anyways. They finally have their offensive line to a point where it isn’t the Predator spike trap for Roethelisberger and now the rest of the lineup is a mess. They could do anything but I’d wager defense. Chance of taking a WR: 50%
  

• 20. Bears – Bears fans have reportedly been whining it up that Cutler doesn’t have enough targets. Yeah, that’s the problem. Not the 2,000 sacks he takes per game. If they’re smart they’re scheming to get some offensive line help which might mean moving up. It’s a top heavy O-line draft and a deep WR draft. You do the math. They might try and compromise with a TE like Tyler Eifert. He catches passes and blocks. It’s the kind of compromise that makes fans happy and got Matt Stafford’s ass kicked his first 2 seasons in Detroit when they took Brandon Pettigrew instead of a tackle. Chance of taking a WR: 40%
  

• 22. Rams – “Sam Bradford needs a target…” I don’t know what Sam Bradford needs but they’ve been throwing above average wideouts at him since he got there and he can’t produce with anything. He needs an offensive line, the same offensive coordinator longer than 45 minutes and a new arm. Yes, we know that Jeff Fischer wanted Justin Blackmon last year which I bet he’s almost glad he screwed up on now. But let me put it to you this way: you’re the only team in your entire division without a badass defense. That’s almost never been the case for Fischer. I’m leaning towards the Rams not going wideout. Chance of taking a WR: 40%
  

  

• 23. & 25. Vikings

I can’t believe how bad this team got as fast as they did. Their WR position is basically Jerome Simpson followed by a gaggle of dudes that are special teamers at best in the rest of the league. Still their defense is even worse. You could say that they’re looking for another Harvin, but they barely played Harvin when they had him. I don’t know what the hell they’re doing but you could build a pretty strong case that they’re looking for a WR with one of their picks. Chance of taking a WR: 75%


• 26. Packers – Mock drafters are really enjoying pinning WRs to the Packers because Greg Jennings is gone and Jones is a free agent next year. They’re still stacked at receiver and had the #9 passing defense in the league with Jennings immobilized for most of the year. Meanwhile they lost Charles goddamn Woodson in the offseason. He was only the backbone of their secondary. They just re-signed Clay Matthews and have been committed to bolstering their defense. I say no way do they not take a bite out of the CB class or find a safety. Chance of taking a WR: 25%
  
  

• 27. Texans – The fucking Texans. I’ve come to hate this team a ton in a very short span of time. Now I have to hate them because their shit coaches can’t figure out a decent wide receiver outside Andre Johnson and have to draft one here to play on their phony football team. Ever since they’ve hinged the passing game entirely on Johnson it’s been a ticking time bomb. They almost have to draft a receiver because of it. Whatever they do it won’t paint JJ Watt back onto the game film of TWO humiliating losses to the Patriots. THE MAN WAS INVISIBLE AGAINST THE PATRIOTS. Chance of taking a WR: 75%

#1. There is probably no Vince Wilfork in this draft.

Listening to Pats fans talk about this years draft is a lot like the last decade of post-Nomar Red Sox callers on WEEI.

“We need to sign a shortstop who’ll hit 40 home runs!”

Well that sounds wonderful, who?

“I don’t know! We just need one!!!!1!”

The trouble with drafting for positional need is that the player you want has to actually exist. So when I hear “we need to draft a pass rushing DT to play opposite Vince Wilfork” I say that’s great. WHO? This was a really nice sentiment when we thought Shariff Floyd was going to fall to the bottom half of the first round. You can forget about that. The secret is out and Floyd looks to be a top 5 pick. So who is left?

Purdue’s Kawaan Short seems to be the most popular choice. He’s big, fast and shows up well statistically with 13 sacks in his final two seasons. If he’s available at 29 I can’t say for certain that he’ll be the best player available though. His inconstancy is a big reason why he’s not a consensus lock for the 1st round. I’m 50/50 on him and never seem to grade his tape the same way twice. Please comment if you’d like to persuade me one way or another.

Let’s say Short is off the board at 29 and you’re bent on taking a defensive tackle. The talent drop is exponentially steeper as it goes down. Who do you bite on? The 24 year old Sylvester Williams who was working in a radiator factory a few years ago? The 350lb John Jenkins who was academically ineligible for Georgia’ bowl game? Ohio State’s Jonathan Hankins and his 1 single sack? LSU’s Bennie Logan and his 2 sacks (plus watch Logan play and you’ll see a talented DT who gets beat by being slow off the snap)? These are all guys with talent who at one point or another were in the first round conversation until analysts started looking at tapes and workouts and thought better of it.

Maybe the #1 NT in the draft and he couldn’t make the bare minimum academic requirements to play in the bowl game.

Remember who every mock drafter in the nation had the Patriots slotted to pick last year? Jerel Worthy, an inconsistent DT with known stamina issues who disappeared for big chunks of games and had disappointing numbers. What was the rationale? He was DT with name recognition and the Patriots needed a DT. Nothing else. Belichick drafted 3 players before Worthy was off the board and one of them was a safety from Illinois who was slotted as a 4th rounder.

Come to think of it. Here are all the DTs taken in the 20-32 range in the last 5 years. You’ll note that there weren’t any drafted last year. Stop me when you hit a superstar.

This team got where it is by drafting the best player available for the best value. Insisting on drafting a DT in the first round is a really stubborn way to go about preparing for this draft. It’d be cool to be wrong here but I don’t see a DT worth the 29th overall pick.

#2. The Chance of Getting an Elite Corner in the 1st is Slim and Getting Slimmer.

Two popular mocks to the Patriots early on were Washington’s Desmond Trufant and Florida State’s Xavier Rhodes. Those are two great picks and I’d take either of them. Four months ago these were tragically underrated prospects and for our own greedy good we wanted it to stay that way. It didn’t. Trufant killed it all through the Senior Bowl practices and people actually started to look at Rhodes’ tape and saw a talented complete corner. As the days goes by it looks more and more likely that the two of them will be off the board in the top 25 picks.

“BUT WON’T SOMEONE PLEEEASE THINK OF THE SECONDARY??!!“

I get it. The pass defense is a recurring problem. So is throwing talent at the pride of the South Dakota Mining and Technology football legacy aka CB’s coach Josh Boyer (have you figured out yet that we don’t like him?). So if you really want to keep giving Boyer talent to ruin lets assume Milliner, Rhodes and Trufant are all off the board. Who do you take?

Belichick’s smoke screen du-jour Jonathan Banks? In a decade of Belichick he’s never tipped his hand that soon on a player so I don’t buy the reports that the Pats are after him. Sure, Banks has some pretty nice numbers and measurables. He also flopped at the Combine, got out-shined by his #2 Darius Slay, and has major tackling issues. Or maybe you’d prefer other first round mention LSU’s Tharold Simon otherwise known as the guy on the wrong end of DeAndre Hopkins 191 yard killing spree in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl? David Amerson, Jordan Poyer, Blidi Wreh-Wilson? Do you look at the tape of any of those players and think they’re going to set the league on fire if we take them in the first round?

One name you should start getting familiar with, if you haven’t already, is Boise State’s Jamar Taylor. While everyone was gushing over Trufant’s senior bowl practices Taylor was very quietly showing off some impressive cover skills. His tape reveals strong tackling as well. In my opinion Taylor has made an argument for himself as the #3 or #4 corner in this draft. His technique isn’t quite as refined as Trufant’s but athletically he’s been stride for stride with him: Trufant ran a 4.38, Taylor ran a 4.39, Trufant had a 37.5″ vertical, Taylor had a 37″ vertical. The Pats him in for a private workout on Monday and have quietly been all over him during the draft process.

#3. The Patriots Might Just Draft Multiple Wide Receivers… And it Might Just Work Out Really Awesome.

One thing I’ve never understood is the attitude on Pats fans towards drafting a wide receiver. Since 2007 the Patriots passing offense has ranked in the top five 4 out of 6 years. And every single year I’ve heard people gripe about the need to draft a wide receiver in the first round. You people wanted Percy Harvin when Wes Welker was the most productive receiver in football. Now we go into a draft literally dripping with wide receiver talent and what do I hear from you?

“YOU GUISE THE OFFENSE ISN’T THE PROBLEM!”

Correction: the offense wasn’t the problem. Now it is. Welker is gone. Amendola is no guarantee. Deion Branch (lets face it) is no longer a real option. Brandon Lloyd is gone. If you follow Pats trends you were probably looked at the desolate free agent landscape and said Ned Stark style “The slapdicks are comin.’” Michael Jenkins, Donald Jones, these guys are 40/60 to even make the week 1 roster. I liked Jenkins a lot in Atlanta but I honestly forget he even played football last year. So ask yourself how much sense it is to get caught up on an offense from ayear ago that doesn’t even exist anymore. How about we move on and agree that some new talent needs to come in/?

If you actually maybe look at this draft for what it is you’ll see one of the deepest wide receiver classes in a very long time. So you tell me? Does it make sense to ignore the biggest strength of the draft class, at a position of need, because of last years stats based on an offense that doesn’t exist anymore? There might not be a once in a lifetime Randy Moss type in this class, but there’s a logjam of mid-late first round projected legit talent. Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, Coradelle Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Stedman Bailey, Keenan Allen, Tavon Austin, Quinton Patton, Robert Woods. Face it linebacker hoarders: this is the year to draft a receiver.

That being said I don’t think its out of the question to see an unbalanced draft again this year, this time with wide receivers. I don’t think it’s insane to think the Pats might take 2 WR’s in the first three rounds. If that upsets you ask yourself how upset you’d be if the Pats walked out of this year’s draft with DeAndre Hopkins and Quinton Patton in their pocket. As yourself how upset you’d be if perennial the dink and dunk offense added Justin Hunter (4.44 40) and Markus Wheaton (4.45 40) to stretch the field out.

You don’t want to add a wideout in the first round? Fine. Be a baby. Here’s Stedman Bailey. In a different draft he’d be a first round pick. In this draft he’s being projected as a 2nd or 3rd rounder. He’s everything that Brand Lloyd wasn’t.

#4. Cover Linebacker Might Be the Dark Horse Position of Need

I love our starting linebackers. Why wouldn’t I? Contrary to popular belief the Patriots had the 9th best run defense in the league giving up only about 130 yards more than the supposedly unbeatable 49ers all year. But the decision to go heavier and meaner at the backer position left Pats exposed on passing downs. Case in point the Pats D gave up 40% of their 3rd downs last year (22nd in the league). Getting Dane Fletcher back is a bonus but he’s the only backer of his mold on this roster. Tracy White is a good special teamer but he just shouldn’t be allowed on the field for the first 3 downs. And a hearty LOL @ U if you really thought Bobby Carpenter was going to work out.

The word is out that the Pats have been kicking the tires on some of the faster middle linebackers. Jonathan Bostic, Jelani Jenkins, Zaviar Gooden, Sean Porter have all been either worked out privately or brought in for an official visit. Patriots linebackers coaches also went out of their way to check out AJ Kline at the Iowa State Pro Day, and have been sniffing around Southern Miss outside linebacker Jamie Collins.

Gooden is maybe the most athletic of the aforementioned group but Kline is probably my favorite. He’s getting the white guy linebacker treatment from analysts: “Smart player… good instincts… makes up for lack of athleticism…” blah blah blah insert racist scouting report here. I agree that he’s a good instinctual football player, but the guy ran a 4.66 at 246 lbs. In fact he was one of only 6 linebackers to run in the 4.6′s That’s plenty athletic for my tastes. A player like Klein would give the Patriots a reliable passing down option that would allow them to keep that sense of toughness Spikes and Mayo bring.

There are a lot of ways to make a defense better. Hoarding pass rushers for the sake of having them isn’t always priority #1. Ask Jake Bequette and/or Markell Carter.

#5. Absolutely No One is Calling With A Blockbuster Deal for Ryan Mallett

Of all the things I’ve consistently heard from Pats rumor mongers the Ryan Mallett fables are among the dumbest. Mallett for the Browns 12th overall pick. Mallett and a 1st to Arizona for Larry Fitzgerald. Ryan Mallett to the Knicks for Carmello Anthony and Patrick Ewing’s flat top…

You understand for a trade like this to happen you have to have either Andy Reid or Matt Millen on one side of the equation? One of them is out of football and the other has already made the single worst trade of the year for a backup QB. I don’t think he has a 2nd in him.

Honestly if the Larry Fitz trade was ever even a minor reality I’m not sure if I wouldn’t have taken it if I was the Cardinals GM. They’d lose their best player but pick up a ton of cap space, 2 first rounders and a guy who actually has a chance to develop into a starting quarterback. Unfortunately they’ve got a new GM with the old GM’s dumbass Kevin Kolb trade looming over him. On top of that they already have a Brady Butt-Double in Brian Hoyer who drew a 2nd round tender from the Cards this off season. That’s right. The guy who sucked worse than Ryan Mallett in last year’s pre-season is so valuable to the Cardinals that they put him up for a 2nd round tender. So don’t count on any last minute trades.

I don’t see why the Jaguars, who passed on Mallett for fuckin Blaine Gabbert of all people, don’t pick up the phone and try to make a deal. They’ve proved outright that they don’t know how to draft anybody, what the hell do they care if they give up a 2nd round pick for him? But no, they’re perfectly content living in their AFC South basement “apartment” forever like the Texans and Colts were their disappointed parents.

And if there’s no blockbuster deal for Mallett then what the hell is the point of even trading him. He was a third round pick. This team jettisons third round picks like they’re dryer sheets. If he works out he works out, if not Brady is playing until he’s 50 anyways so who cares.

If you recognize the hideous piece of web design above then you’re qualified to call yourself a draft nerd. Walterfootball, the website that started in a high school computer class now boasts over 700,000+ hits per week, and has become one of the best spots for insider info, talent eval, and a constantly updated 7 round mock draft. Its one of a handful of sites I check and reference daily. The site’s founder, Walter Cherepinsky was nice enough to take some time out of his busy schedule and answer a few questions for me. Walt is the kind of guy we like at Patskrieg: an average guy who does his homework and isn’t writing on anyone’s agenda.

Patskrieg: Your Facebook says you live in Philly. I’ve definitely been yelled at
and flipped off for being in a car with a Pat Patriot sticker driving
through the Philly/West Jersey area, but in your own opinion do you
think that the hatred of the Patriots is as real as the internet makes
it out to be nationwide?

WC: Yeah, it is. I don’t hate the Patriots, but my girlfriend absolutely loathes them, and she’s from Colorado. I think people are just turned off by the arrogance. The Spygate thing didn’t help

Patskrieg: One of the things that really sets WF apart from the rest of these sites is that you gradually build up from 32 picks to all 7 rounds. How exhausting is it to put 7 mock rounds together? What’s your criteria for mocking a guy to go in the 6th or 7th vs. ending up an UDFA?

WC: It gets pretty tiring once I’m in Rounds 5-7, but it’s fun at the same time because I love trying to project what will happen. What I like to do in the later rounds is match players who have received interest from teams. When I’m stuck, I just rely on my big board and slot the top available prospect to the team, as long as it makes sense.

Patskrieg: Are there any players in this year’s class that you think are going to
make big unexpected jumps up the board on draft day? Any sleepers you
think are going to go low and excel in the NFL?

WC: There are always prospects who make unexpected jumps. For instance, no one saw Tyson Alualu coming. There will be one player who goes in the top 15, and the pick will draw a collective “WTF?” from everyone on Twitter. I can’t exactly pinpoint who that might be, but some candidates include Terron Armstead, Menelik Watson, Justin Hunter, Desmond Trufant and Datone Jones.

Patskrieg: You seem like you’ve been big on Hunter all along, but only recently has he been getting first round buzz. Where is the disconnect with Hunter?

WC: Justin Hunter dropped a lot of passes this past season. He needed to show well in the drills, and he did. His measureables were off the charts as well. That was to be expected, but teams still came away impressed.

Patskrieg: Manti Te’o, Tyrann Mathieu, D’Rick Rogers, Alec Ogletree: which one of these prospects do you think scares GMs the most? If you’re a GM on the clock in the bottom of the 2nd round with needs at all those positions who do you bite on?

WC: I’d say Manti Te’o scares GMs most because of the distraction he’d bring. Teams are looking at what happened with Tim Tebow and the Jets, and they’re saying that they don’t want any part of that. A personnel man on an AFC team in need of an inside linebacker told us that they will be staying away from Te’o. If all are available in the bottom of the 2nd round, I’m taking Alec Ogletree. He’s the best of the group.

Patskrieg: New GM in place for the Jets. You gave the Idzik signing a C- and
pointed out that he has no scouting or player eval history. How do the
Jets find a way to blow the draft this year? And how hilarious will it
be?

WC: Oh, they can screw it up a number of ways. I recently outlined one way, by drafting Matt Barkley when they already learned what USC quarterbacks bring to the table. I fully expect the Jets to reach for players. Maybe they’ll start with a guard in the top 10. It should provide everyone, aside from Jet fans, with a good laugh.

Save some of those chuckles for the season, fellas…

Patskrieg: One of the big discussions going on right now is whether an interior lineman could be a top ten pick. Right now you’ve got two in the top 16 (Warmack at 10, and Cooper at 16). How real a possibility is this? Do you think teams are looking at clubs like the 49ers and re-evalutating the importance of a running game? Or are these guys really the best talent available at those spots?

WC: Normally it’s not a possibility, but in this type of a draft class, where the top-level talent isn’t there, you could see a guard sneak into the top 10. Teams do like to copy others, but what teams are stealing from the 49ers is the read-option, pistol-style offense. Unfortunately, there are only two real read-option quarterbacks this year, and neither is a first-round prospect. There will be a bunch in 2014.

Patskrieg: How difficult is it to predict draft picks for a team like the Patriots?

WC: The thing about the Patriots is that they seldom let any information leak out. They’re great with that. Plus, they always seem to trade around. Predicting their draft is pretty difficult. I’m not sure I’ve nailed down their tendencies quite yet.

Patskrieg: It’s funny you should mention that. NEPatriotsdraft reported recently via Tony Pauline that the Patriots are very interested in taking Miss State corner Jonathan Banks in the first round. Does this trip your B.S. sensors?

WC: I think this could definitely be legitimate. The Patriots are pretty tight-lipped, but it’s possible that Draftinsider does have a good source with the Patriots. Tony Pauline is pretty spot on with his rumors.

Patskrieg: So you spend months and months coming up with these mocks, and usually the whole thing starts going to hell somewhere in the first 20 picks. How do you account for teams that year after year just make stupid picks that don’t really have any reason to it?

WC: It’s tough to account for teams that make stupid picks, but what I like to do is study draft tendencies of teams. For instance, I nailed multiple picks that the Bills and Eagles made last year because I knew what they were thinking. Having some inside info helped, but it was a combination of that information and the data I found while studying teams’ draft tendencies.

Patskrieg: You had Tavon Austin mocked to the Pats for a long time. Post-combine you’ve got him going higher and higher. Do you think a guy his size can really succeed in the NFL if he’s got a Welker-esque workload coming his way?

WC: Well, he’s 10 pounds lighter now, but he could add on 5-10 pounds in an NFL strength-and-conditioning program. Austin has the potential to be the best slot receiver in the NFL in a couple of years. That’s huge, especially in today’s spacing-prevalent NFL. That’s why I moved him up to 9.

Patskrieg: Would you care to defend your most recent mock which has NC State’s David Amerson going to the Pats in the 2nd round? The last time the Pats took a corner as contact shy as Amerson it was Jonathan Wilhite and that went terribly.

WC: The Patriots just seem to like players who are versatile at cornerback and safety. David Amerson would fit in comfortably at both positions. He’s a better prospect than Jonathan Wilhite.

The Wayne/Wilhite matchup from 2009: worked out about as well as any terrible idea.

Patskrieg: Who do you like as far as draft analysts? Is there anyone in particular whose opinion you trust? On the flip side, are there any guys you just think are total hacks?

WC: Scott Wright of DraftCountdown always puts out great content. He’s one of the reasons the NFL Draft is so huge. I’ve also been a fan of Daniel Jeremiah’s work on the NFL Network. I don’t want to call anyone a hack because I don’t want to make any enemies, but I definitely do think there are some hacks out there. Fortunately for the draft community, there is more quality analysis than poor analysis.

Patskrieg: You were extra critical of the Alex Smith trade as far as the Chiefs are concerned, and rightfully so. Looking at the potential ramifications of the trade: how much is the rest of the league cringing that the Niners have the draft capitol to do whatever or trade for whoever they want? What do you think is the big move they’re moving towards? On the AFC side what do you think the Pats are loading up for with the Brady re-structure?

WC: Oh, I’d have to believe the rest of the NFC is cringing right now. The 49ers were already going to be a super power for years to come, and now they’re even stronger. I love the Brady restructure, but Belichick better do enough to help his team win now, or it’s all for naught.

Patskrieg: How did you first start doing Walterfootball? Did you have a background in football, or were you just a fan with something to say?

WC: The closest I came to playing football was working out in the weight room with the football team in high school. I was the captain of the swim team, and being that I went to a broke public school, our football coach doubled as the swim coach. He suggested that I should try out, but I wanted to concentrate on swimming, which I was definitely better at. I was just a big football fan when I started this Web site back in 1999.

Patskrieg: From your email signature it looks like you’ve got a handful of projects in the works. Exactly how much do you have going on in your life?

WC:I run this Web site full time. I have two other Web sites, but those are just other side projects (ProSalesGuide.com and DraftDebacled.com). I’ve also written a book, Jerks on My Floor. I’m currently looking for a literary agent for that.

Please no more… Jermaine Cunningham

I’m not bent on bashing 3rd year DE/OLB Jermaine Cunningham. I’m a fan of his, and I’ve always seen his potential. But realistically speaking, Cunningham remains the lone bumout pick from an almost flawlessly executed 2010 draft. I’ve been saying this for the last two years and maybe someone will eventually listen to me; Cunningham was meant to be a 3-4 outside backer.

I know BB insists that different fronts are “just a matter of semantics.” It is, but in some ways it isn’t and this is specifically relevant at the defensive end/outside linebacker split. We could talk about how the 4-3 DE position can put a DE on an island with an offensive tackle instead of getting help from a 5-tech DE in a 3-4. It’s a lot easier to point out the long list of recent veterans who excelled in one front and failed in another: Aaron Kampman, Dwight Freeney, Andre Carter, Derek Burgess, Shawne Merriman to name some.

I’m looking at this strictly from having watched Cunningham play in 2 different defensive fronts and seeing the results. He’s just not effective with his hands on the ground. The plan of shifting him to the interior in passing situations was doomed from the start. He’s a lank 255-260 lb pass rusher who gets lost among interior lineman, and his spin move isn’t fooling anyone. The coolest thing he’s done in 3 years as a Patriot was injure Michael Vick in a preseason game.

Not that THAT won’t ever not be cool…

I’m not here to call the guy a bum, or insist that he’s lazy or he sucks. But I’ll say this. Cunningham was the 53rd pick overall in 2010. His Gator teammate Carlos Dunlap was the 54th pick. Dunlap had more tackles, he had 2 more sacks than Cunningham, he ran a faster 40 and was almost universally recognized as a 1st-2nd round talent who was better than Jermaine Cunningham. Belichick hipster drafted and took Cunningham. I vaguely remember the Bengals coming right in with their pick at 54 as if they couldn’t believe we took the lesser known guy over Dunlap. So far the Pats have 3.5 sacks in 3 years to show for Cunningham. Dunlap, meanwhile, is the Bengals all time rookie sack leader. At Cunningham’s current pace he’ll reach Dunlap’s sack numbers in another 5 1/2 years. Here it is in table form just because I think it looks nice:

I think the results are in on this one: Cunningham was the wrong pick.

Cunningham is under contract for another year at $575,000. He’s cheap but what exactly is the money going to? A 2nd round pick that plays 20 snaps a game? At his peak he averaged somewhere around 20-30 snaps a game. By the end of the 2012 season he had been supplanted by UDFA Justin Francis and reduced to only 6 snaps in the AFCCG. There are a handful of 3-4 D’s out there still in development, and we know Cleveland is going to be looking for 3-4 personnel. If they know what’s good for them they’ll come calling about what it would take to trade for Cunningham. The problem is he’s been on the field so little that a lot of teams still haven’t gotten a good look at him.

SOLUTIONS?

In House The Pats took Jake Bequette in the third round last year and he couldn’t even crack the roster. He didn’t suck too bad in pre-season but I still don’t get that pick. The only way it truly makes sense is if he was insurance on Cunningham. It would free up a roster spot for Jake Bequette to maybe actually do something. Trevor Scott will be a free agent in March. He played 22% of the defensive snaps and usually made the most of them. I don’t see him sticking around if the Pats find something better on the market. The Pats have also made some interesting futures contract moves with:

• Marcus Benard (Browns) – 3 year veteran from Jackson State. Came on strong his first 2 seasons (11 sacks in 21 games). The new regime didn’t care for him much when he SURPRISE couldn’t hack it in the new 3-4. Got in a motorcycle accident on the way to practice.
• Armond Armstead (CFL) – CFL rookie of the year and former USC standout. Projects to play either inside or outside in a 4-3.
• Jason Vega (CFL) – Described as the black Rob Ninkovich and export of my hometown BROCKTON, MASSACHUSETTS

  With all the other positions in need, this might be the best route to go if any of these younger guys work out.

  The Draft
  Off the top of my head…

  • Margus Hunt (SMU) – You can cross most of the premiere pass rushers off your list. Everyone wants their own Aldon Smith and defensive end will be in high demand. Enter this 6’8″ 277 lb Estonian hulk who is fast, strong, big and still learning the game.
  • Sam Montgomery (LSU) – If Montgomery is on the board when the Pats are up that means more than one team screwed up bigtime. Some mocks are putting him in the 2nd round, but I think he’s 1st round material.
  • Brandon Jenkins (FSU) – Jenkins was on pace to be a first round pick then injured his knee. He’s waving his medical reshirt year and declaring for the draft. It makes no sense but it’s a raw talent available at low cost.
  • William Ghloston (Michigan State) – 6’7″ 270 lbs, he’s a freak. He’s got a Richard Seymourish feel to him at about 20-30 lbs lighter.

    Free Agency
    Belichick is a guy who likes to have a veteran insurance plan for his younger players though, and has no problem bringing in a guy for a 1 or 2 year stop-over. Some names I’d watch are:

    • Dwight Freeney (Colts) – Obvious name to watch. You know Belichick respects his rivals. Freeney has 3 sacks in 7 career games against New England.
    • Israel Idonije (Bears) – The Bears need to get Shea McClellin into the starting lineup. Idonije is probably on his way out despite a great season. He had 7.5 sacks last year, but you could attribute a lot of that to playing across from Julius Peppers.
    • Osi Umenyiora (Giants) – Okay I know… total head case. 31 years old. Noted Patriots enemy. But this guy kicked our ass in 2 Super Bowls. He’s done as an every down player but still pulled off 6 sacks last year.
    • Wallace Gilberry (Bengals) – Mark Anderson type. You put him in there when you know the other team has to pass and let him get at the quarterback. Otherwise you forget about him. 6.5 sacks last year in limited snaps.

      And one more time:

      

Please no more… Brandon Lloyd Stunt Dives

Brandon Lloyd, last year’s big signing, finished the season with 911 yards and 4 TDs. I can’t say I hated the guy, and he certainly wasn’t unproductive. He was the 2nd leading receiver on the roster. He made the back shoulder sideline catch look easy. He had the second most targets on the team (130). Despite not being the “deep threat” that many were convinced he’d be, he was one of only 3 Pats wideouts with double digit 20+ yard catches (believe it or not Welker and Gronk had more). And he made us forget all about the old “85″, whats-his-name that now only exists in Twitter, divorce court, and XBox Live adding himself to Madden rosters.

But seriously… look me in the eye and tell me Lloyd didn’t leave at least 100 yards on the table by never ever trying for yards after the catch.

Lloyd was absolutely obsessed with getting to the ground or getting out of bounds the second he caught anything. Once in a while he’d even cost himself the catch by doing the stop drop and roll routine before the ball even got to him. If it wasn’t that he’d dive, jump, or leave his feet without really needing to and purposely put himself in the position to catch and fall down. To some people it looked like an amazing catch. To most of us it looked like Lloyd doing a stuntman gunshot maneuver on a routine catch.

And to think… people around here actually criticized Randy Moss for not being a “complete receiver” whatever the hell that was supposed to mean. Moss had his moments, and got accused of dogging it more than once by media pessimists. Moss delivered though. He put up 1,000+ yards and 11 TDs in 16 games with Matt Cassell. In 3 full seasons with the New England Patriots Moss never caught for less than 1,000 yards or fewer than 11 TDs. And he did it with the Boston media griping about how lazy he was, and how anyone can just run in a straight line. Does that add up to you?

It seemed like early in the season the only thing that was working was the back shoulder throw on the sideline. Then in the 2nd half of the year it was almost like Brady and McDaniels were challenging Lloyd to extend the play, getting the ball to him closer and closer to the middle of the field. Every time though, he found a way to get to the ground. Usually this meant dropping to his knees to catch a ball he could have just as easily caught standing up.

Being a Patriots receiver historically means having some sort of killer instinct to make the plays you need to make. Granted, I never saw Lloyd pull a Roy Williams and jump out of bounds a yard shy of a first down just to avoid a hit. But think about guys like Deion Branch, Kevin Faulk, Troy Brown… guys who always that were never afraid to fight for an extra few yards when it was needed. In that sense, how much do you really think of Brandon Lloyd as a Patriot?

Per Greg Bedard and the Globe Lloyd has $3 million coming to him if the Pats decide to pick up his option for another season. If he’s not committed to extending plays more often, I don’t think you’ll find too many people in tears if they just let him walk.

SOLUTIONS?

In House
Unless Belichick has a super secret Irving Fryar Frankenstein project stashed away in the basement I think the cupboard is bare. The WR depth on this team is mainly Julian Edelman, and 7th round pick Jeremy Ebert i.e. Welker clones. I don’t want to say Lloyd can’t improve on his faults, but you’re asking a 9 year veteran to change the way he plays the game.

The Draft
This draft class is absolutely overflowing with fast, physical, capable wide receivers. Just to name a few:

• Justin Hunter (Tennessee) – Hunter is 6’4″ 200 lbs. After tearing his ACL his junior year he didn’t have the same straight line speed the next year, but made up for it by running more routes across the middle of the field. He’s a very impressive, underrated prospect.
• Terrence Williams (Baylor) – Williams is 6’2″ 205 and looks like he’s about 220 at times. Not to mention he put up over 1,800 yards as soon as Kendall Wright and Josh Gordon left town.
• Da’Rick Rodgers (Tenn. Tech) – Rogers is 6’3″ 215 lbs and will come at a big value after being kicked off the Vols roster after a huge sophomore year.
• DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson) – I’m a huge Hopkins fan and I make no secret about it. He reminds me a lot of Lloyd in that he’s a freak and can make difficult catches look easy. He’s not the biggest or fastest wideout but he’s a great route runner and a gutsy ballplayer.
• Markus Davis (Virginia Tech) – Davis is a physical freak at 6’4″ 230 # and he can still make plays on go routes. The Pats always scope out guys like this but rarely pull the trigger.

Free Agents
There are some very capable and occasionally affordable receivers that are scheduled to hit the market this year. None of their names begin with “Jabar” or end in “Stallworth.” I think if you really start looking at this free agent WR group for an end-all-be-all solution you’re going to be more disappointed than you expected.

• Mike Wallace (Steelers)- You’re going to hear people kicking and screaming for the Pats to go after Mike Wallace. Why? He drops too many passes and has a limited skillset as far as route running. On top of that Miami basically has to sign him. If they can’t sign a high-priced free agent to come in and lay an egg then the orange harvest turns to ashes. Everyone knows that.
• Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs)- You’re going to hear people kicking and screaming for the Pats to go after Dwayne Bowe. He’s big, fast, and makes for a nice mid-round fantasy pick. But do you really watch him play? I know it does’t sound like much of a task but he made Matt Cassel look like a moron on the regular. He had a knack for being in the wrong place in clutch situations and causing interceptions.
• Greg Jennings (Packers) – You’re going to hear people kicking and screaming for the Pats to go after Greg Jennings. I wish targeting a talented big name expensive wideout that hasn’t played 16 games in 2 years and already has a Super Bowl ring was as exciting a prospect to me as it is to everyone else. I wish I had no idea that The Big Bang Theory wasn’t the Heath Shuler of sitcoms but these are things I have to live with.
• Brandon Gibson (Rams) – McDaniels worked with Gibson in St Louis. The results weren’t anything to write home about, but they gave Greg Salas a shot based off basically the same criteria. He was part of an on-going strategy in St. Louis to throw as many rotating above average receivers, coordinators, and coaches at Sam Bradford until he spontaneously develops into a great quarterback. It’s working out awesome.
• Doug Gabriel (Orlando Predators) – Gabriel worked with McDaniels in 2006 in his first year as offensive coordinator. And hey… he was #85 too. His history with McDaniels and the Patriots puts him on par with Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth along with the fact that they’re all terrible and shouldn’t be in the NFL anymore.

  

  Do you see where I’m going with this? Do you see where the next productive Patriots wideout needs to come from?