My wish list starts with 1 guy that isn’t exactly popular these days, but I think he’s made for the Pats.
JANORIS JENKINS CB – North Alabama Build: 5-10 193 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.44 Combine Years Started: 4 Patriots Fit: CB / Nickel DB Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACKS
FF
QB HURRIES
2011
38-30 UA
7.5
4.5
2
3
Since being the #4 CB in the nation coming out of high school, the red flags on Jenkins are well documented. But let me just say this. In 2010 Jenkins went up against AJ Green (4th overall pick in 2011), Julio Jones (6th overall pick in 2011) and Alshon Jeffrey (1517 yds in 2010, 4th in FBS) and held the 3 of them to an average of 4.7 receptions for 38 yards per game, allowing only 1 TD between them. He’s a complete corner. He covers well. He tackles. He sheds blocks like he means it. And he’s not afraid to take on bigger players. You can not say that about draft besides the 2 corners that have already been drafted. The rest of this corner class is dismal. I really liked what I saw of him in the Senior Bowl practices. Not just his play, but the way that he handles himself with other players. Honestly, he reminds me of Asante Samuel if Asante Samuel wasn’t made of Fun-Fetti. For my money he’s the most talented player left on the board and the icing on the cake if the Pats can get him.
STEPHEN HILL WR – Georgia Tech Build: 6-4 215 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.36 Combine Years Started: 1.5 (Started 9 games in 2010) Patriots Fit: Wideout Relevant Stats:
YEAR
REC
YDS
TDS
YDS/GAME
RUSHING YDS
2011
28/td>
820
5
63.1
12/147
Hill was originally graded by the advisory board as a 4th round pick, but after blowing up the Combine most analysts were thinking 1st round. So it was a surprise to most of us when AJ Jenkins went in Hill’s place last night. Hill’s inexperience is probably what is keeping him out the top of the draft. Eclipsed by his athletic showcasing is the fact that he only caught 28 passes his junior year before leaving GT. He’s a 22 game starter playing in Georgia Tech’s wacky offense. Two years ago everyone had doubts about Demaryius Thomas’ ability to run pro routes coming out of Georgia Tech. Two years later we still have no idea if he can because his only productive year was in the Denver Tebow offense. Still, Stephen Hill is a guy who stood out to me in the early days of the scouting period when Hill was a 3rd or 4th rounder. He has the triangle numbers of first rounder, he can make circus catches, and has better body composure than anyone left on the board. He’s well worth the risk anywhere in the 2nd round.
JURON CRINER WR – Arizona Build: 6-3 224 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.68 Combine 4.56 Pro Day Years Started: 2 Patriots Fit: Wideout / Deion Branch Type Relevant Stats:
YEAR
REC
YDS
TDS
YDS/GAME
2011
82/td>
1233
11
94.84
My associate, and Patskrieg Facebook regular Rusty has a certain knack for grading wide receivers. He was a one man Damian Williams bandwagon before there ever was such a thing. Since he’s been squawking about Juron Criner and his ability to run a hitch route since January I decided to cave. Criner isn’t a freak. He has a history of drops. And he isn’t a burner. But he has a ton of experience. Arizona’s defense was absolutely putrid in 2011 so they were forced to throw the ball all day. Nick Foles isn’t an elite quarterback, but between he and Criner they managed 1233 yards and 11 TDs. Yes, he’s a potentially more evolved more NFL-ready wide receiver than most of the guys in this class. Yes, he needs to work on the brain farts and the drops. But in Rusty I trust, and I’d be happy with Criner with the 63rd pick.
BRANDON THOMPSON DT/DE – Clemson Build: 6-2 314 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 5.00 Pro Day Years Started: 3 Patriots Fit: 3-4 DE, Nickel/Dime DT Relevant Stats:
Season
Tackles
TFL
Sacks
QB Hurries
2011
77 (46 Solo)
8
2.5
18
My obsession with Clemson’s Brandon Thompson is well documented. He’s an elephant rushing beast who paved the way for Da’Quan Bowers and Andre Branch in consecutive seasons. This would be another icing on the cake pick that would set the defense up for years to come. If you want my full analysis of Thompson then check out the Draft Profile I did for him or the comparisons to Michael Brockers I also did.
MIKE MARTIN DT/DE – Michigan Build: 6-2 306 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.84 Combine Years Started: 3 Patriots Fit: 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT Relevant Stats:
Season
Tackles
TFL
Sacks
QB Hurries
2011
64-20 UA
6
3.5
3
Martin might be a little bit of a stretch at 63, but I think he’s a great value pick is Thompson, and Jerel Worthy are off the board. He plays like a faster, less brain damaged Mike Wright (sorry Mike) who I always thought was mis-used as a 3-4 DE when he could have shined as a 4-3 DT. Michigan absolutely sucked for years, and Martin is one of the key guys that brought the program back to life. He’s not built to be a true nose but has experience playing in the zero technique as well as shaded off guard, and working in both even and odd spacing. The Pats D-Line, as it is, thrives off of energy. When you bring in high energy guys (Mark Anderson, Kyle Love) to compliment #75′s natural leadership you get results. Mike Martin is a ferocious player who I think would jive well with an evolving front 4.
PETER KONZ Center – Wisconsin Build: 6-5 314 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.84 Combine Years Started: 3 Patriots Fit: 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT Relevant Stats: lolz CentaRs dont hve staTz
Konz was originally my 1st round pick for the Pats when I wasn’t sure if Dan Koppen was coming back. They definitely could use another promising player in the interior. He’s a road grader. A 3 year starter for an offense that paved the way for Montee Ball. He’s a Remington Trophy Finalist. He missed 3 games with an ankle injury last year, returned in time to play the Rose Bowl, but hasn’t run a 40 yet which is why he’s still available. I won’t go too far into detail about a guy who will probably be off the boards by the time the Pats get another pick, so I’ll quote Patskrieg Facebook poster Andrew “Whiskey” Frazier with: O line. Get a big dumb white guy up there…….
Today, Mike Shea is walking on goddamn sunshine. For months now I’ve been bracing myself for the fact that two of my favorite players in college football: one superstar raw talent in the making, and one was a 3 year staple in my regular FBS watching and Crimson Tide fanboy-ing would never be drafted by my New England Patriots. Belichick, you finally read my love letters. You finally understand. Today I know that they’re both Patriots come this fall and I’m strutting around like Shawn Michaels in a mirror shop. Yes, Sir. Day 1 of the 2012 draft was very good to me.
CHANDLER JONES DE/OLB – Syracuse Build: 6-5 266 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.85 Combine Years Started: 2 Patriots Fit: 4-3 DE / 3-4 OLB Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACKS
FF
QB HURRIES
2011
38-30 UA
7.5
4.5
2
3
I was maybe 12 years old and I was helping my dad draft for my younger brother’s basketball team. We’re standing there in the gym watching all these little kids run around hucking basketballs everywhere when in walks this towering woman. She was a tall African American woman probably bordering somewhere around 7 ft who, even in her 40′s with a pair of scratched up glasses hunched over in a cheap looking beige Marshalls winter jacket, looked like she could dunk on anybody there. My dad turned to me quietly and said “we need to find the kid that goes with that mom.” Sure enough he did, and spent a first round pick on a kid who would be his starting center. The Lesson: Genetics Matter.
I didn’t know Chandler Jones was of the same Endicott, NY Jones family that produced UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones until after the 2011 season. I only knew him as an under the radar DE that was being billed as a deceptive 2nd rounder. He was an honor roll student at Syracuse. He comes from a family of athletes (his older brother Arthur was a DE drafted by the Ravens). And to top it off he’s, in my humble opinion, the best raw defensive talent in this draft or the last.
His 40 time isn’t anything spectacular, but that’s not his specialty. He uses that big lower body to get the quickest 1st step off the line that I’ve seen in this entire draft. He uses thse 35 1/2 inch arms to separate from blockers. He has violent hands, and his pass rush is developing. He’s an elephant 3-4 DE in the body of a lanky OLB. He’s Richard Seymour’s soul in the form of Aldon Smith’s body. Make no mistake, Jones is still raw but this guy has all the tools to terrorize in the NFL.
DONT’A HIGHTOWER DE/OLB – Syracuse Build: 6-2 265 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.62 Combine Years Started: 3.5 (Started as a true freshman, took Medical red-shirt in 2009) Patriots Fit: Wes/Sam/Mike Linebacker / 4-3 DE / 3-4 MLB Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACKS
FF
QB HURRIES
2011
85-41 UA
11
4
1
7
There are a handful of guys that were the reason I watched college football over the last 2 years. Three of them played for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Two of them were running backs. The other one was Dont’a Hightower. For months building up to the draft I posed the question over and over: If I’m Belichick sitting there in the late 20′s and Hightower is still on the board, do I grab him? For my money Hightower was one of the top 5 defensive players in this draft. He was absolutely everywhere all the time for Alabama. He was a playmaker at any spot they put him. But his primary position is a spot where the Patriots have 2 key starters in Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Spikes. Well championship coaches draft the best player available. If the rest of the league didn’t recognize it then that’s their fault. You’d better believe Baltimore had Hightower in their sights and that’s why the Pats moved up to grab him. What were they going to do, let their biggest competitor in the AFC sit there and grab another Ray Lewis just because everyone had mocked it that way? I love this pick.
Inside. Outside. Put Hightower anywhere and he can make a play. The intensity of the Alabama defense reminds me of the Brandon Spikes lead Gators from 2009. Except this team won a BCS championship in maybe the most dominant defensive stand I’ve ever seen in college football. Dont’a Hightower was the leader of that defense. He’s a playmaker plain and simple with the frame and skills to play anywhere at any time.
UPDATE: Told you neither one were coming to the Pats. lol @ u.
We’re a day away from the draft and there is a steadily increasing sentiment that either the 27th or 31st pick is going to come down between USC pass rusher Nick Perry, and Boise State’s late riser DE/OLB prospect Shea McClellin. If you’re asking me I’d probably be inclined to burst a bubble or two and say the choice is between neither. Every year a linebacker makes a jump from the mid rounds to the first rounds in the eyes of analysts just days before the draft. Last year it was Fresno State’s Chris Carter… who ended up a Pittsburgh Steeler 6 rounds later. So as we like to do here, let’s look at the facts and make a judgement on our own.
NICK PERRY DE – USC Build: 6-3 271 lbs (played at 250 lbs) 40 Yd Dash: 4.64 Combine Projection: Late 1st Round – Mid 2nd Years Started: 2 Patriots Fit: 4-3 DE Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACKS
FF
QB HURRIES
2011
54-31 UA
13
8.5
3
0
SHEA MCCLELLIN DE/OLB – BOISE STATE Build: 6-3 260 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.63 Combine Projection: Late 1st Round – Mid 2nd Years Started: 2.5 (Started final 11 games of 2009) Patriots Fit: 4-3 DE Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACKS
FF
QB HURRIES
2011
50-30 UA
12.5
7
1
1
MEASURABLES: As far as straight line speed is concerned Perry matched McClellin’s 4.63 40 with a 4.64 of his own and he did it 10 pounds heavier. Perry also eclipsed McClellin with 35 bench reps to McClellin’s 19. That’s not a typo: NINETEEN. That’s not okay for a guy McClellin’s size and it shows, as you’ll see later on, in his spotty ability to bullrush. In all fairness it tied him with consensus superstar in the making Michael Brockers (a 322 lb Defensive Tackle) for the lowest D-Line bench press totals at the Combine. Perry also put on 20 lbs from his playing weight (listed as 250 on ESPN) so I’m extra impressed that he maintained his athleticism with all that bulk even though it may have knocked him out of an OLB role.
Advantage: Nick Perry
LEVEL OF COMP vs. EFFECTIVENESS: Boise State has produced 10 currently active NFL players. 2 of them have Pro Bowls on their resume (Ryan Clady, Quinten Mikell). And then again a handful of them were supposed to be a lot better than they actually were (Kyle Wilson, Titus Young, Orlando Scandrick). Since joining the Mountain West Conference in 2011 the Broncos outscored their opponents 575 – 243. But not so fast, McClellin had 2.5 sacks against Georgia in the season opener. In fact, McClellin scored a sack and a QB hurry against none other than 1st round lock Cordy Glenn. Pay attention to the matchups between #92 McClellin and #71 Glenn.
There are two very distinct and very different Nick Perry’s that take the football field sometimes. The Nick Perry I like is the guy who kicked Arizona’s ass for a sack and 2 TFLs. Watch the pocket collapse play after play as Perry shows off his bull rushing strength. His pads are right around where they need to be and he just lets that powerful frame goto work:
There’s another Nick Perry that had a statistically good game against Cal, but got realistically pWned by 2nd round prospect Mitchell Schwartz:
The only time he really gets any pressure is coming off the right side (opposite Schwartz) or when Schwartz dun goofs on a blocking assignment. The play that really bugs me is at 2:44 where Perry has 3 shots at the quarterback and can distinctly be seen jogging across the field while Cal completes a big (albiet meaningless in a blowout) pass.
Advantage: Shea McClellin
VERSATILITY When asked, in an interview with a Packers fan site, what player he admires and patterns himself after McClellin said Mike Vrabel for his versatility. Come on, Shea. First you take my last name as your first then you name my all time favorite linebacker as your own (I’m assuming). You had me at “hello.”
Shea McClellin plays 22 snaps in the following video:
I count at least 9 unique looks from him across those 22 snaps: as a 4-3 DE on both sides, in a 2 point stance on both sides, inside, outside, as a weakside and strongside linebacker, on and on. They like to mix up his positioning a lot on 3rd downs. The Broncos coaches especially like using him as a Nickel or Dime style linebacker and having him bring pressure up the middle. He attacks the inside gaps, he attacks the outside gaps, he drops into coverage, and really does a great job in space for a guy his size. I don’t usually go for these do-it-all types but McClellin is clearly a special player.
Perry does basically one thing: lining up on an OT in a 4 point stance and trying to beat him one on one. He does it really well. But he does one thing. He doesn’t drop into coverage. You rarely see him run a stunt to the inside. That’s not necessarily his fault. I think I saw him drop into coverage once. Perry has otherwise boxed himself into a 4-3 exclusive reputation and I think it’s well earned.
Advantage: Shea McClellin
PASS RUSHING: For two potentially very different players they have very similar weaknesses. Neither one are especially well developed hand fighters. Both are content to just try and out-run the OT on the outside shoulder, and basically just get run out into oblivion. McClellin, I feel, is especially susceptible to this and often lines up in that wide 4 point stance that usually pads a lot of stats in college but never really pans out in the NFL. Every time he does it you know he’s already picked the OT’s outside shoulder and isn’t going to bother with anything else. A good LT will just bury guide him right out the back door.
USC v. Washington was Perry’s banner game of 2011. Ignore the score for now, and look how many plays Perry is generally a non-factor in early on, and count how many different pass rush moves he uses in the first half:
Yeah, it’s basically just one move: outside shoulder. At 2:15 he actually catches Kelemete stumbling on the snap, and still loses on the exact same move. The worst part is just how easy Kelemete makes the block look. It takes him until almost 29 minutes into the game to finally try a new move and SURPRISE it actually works, and Perry picks up a sack.
Advantage: Shea McClellin
EDGE SETTING: The thing about playing in the WAC and the MWC is that you see a lot of spread offenses, a lot of gadget offenses, and a whole lot of airing it out. So it’s no surprise that edge setting never really became a big part of McClellin’s game. He’s really good at a lot of things, but it should be a concern to people expecting him to be an every down DE or OLB that he’s not really a run defender.
Perry meanwhile saw a lot more pro-style offenses, and a lot more bigger backs trying to work between the tackles. He sets his edges well. Take a game like Stanford as example; Perry didn’t have a ton of luck pass rushing against a solid offensive line but Stanford really struggled to run the ball to Perry’s side all day:
Advantage: Nick Perry
PATRIOTS FIT: The biggest selling point for McClellin to the Patriots is that he’s a pretty safe projection to play 3-4 OLB. But hold the fuck up for a second. Who says the Patriots are even running a base 3-4 next year? They spent an overwhelming amount of time in the base 4-3 last year and were unexpectedly successful with 4-3 exclusive DE’s like Andre Carter and Mark Anderson (20 sacks between them). On top of that look at the linebackers they’ve been scouting: Zach Brown, Luke Keuchley, Bruce Irvin, Levonte David, Kyle Wilber. Brown and Keuchley are 4-3 exclusive middle linebackers (IMO), and the rest of the guys play in the 240 range and look to be Wes and Sam OLBs. I know this happens every year but Patriots fans should be very very intrigued by the focus on smaller linebackers.
Furthermore, Patriots fans get sold on every multi-threat player every single year. Owen Marecic anyone… Tim Tebow anyone?? so you’ll excuse me if I beg the question: what if they just want one guy to do one thing really well for once? All I’m saying here is that if you’re mocking Mc-C to the Pats because he can play in a 3-4 don’t go nuts just yet. Peter King had Perry going to the Patriots as of last week on the grounds that his one and only job would be to rush off the edge. I don’t think it’s an altogether ridiculous concept. Perry has just as much potential to be nurtured into a pass rushing DE. He’s 10 pounds heavier, runs faster, has better strength, and no matter who the pick is they have Pepper Johnson to learn from.
I like to think of myself as a reasonable man with reasonable tastes. So when Belichick goes hunting for a safety later this month I’d like to make a reasonable, and simple request: bring us the antithesis of Josh Barrett.
Remember #30 Josh Barrett? The guy Belichick supposedly picked out of the Broncos pocket when they tried to slide him by waivers? The guy who was supposed to be the ace up Belichicks sleeve when he was finally healthy? Barrett played 5 games as a Patriot starting week 1 before going on IR with a terminal allergy to physical contact. He made 14 tackles and I don’t remember a single goddamn one. He couldn’t cover anybody. He couldn’t tackle anybody and sometimes he just plain wouldn’t tackle anybody. Remember him running stride for stride with Darren McFadden for 20 yards without even putting a hand on him? He was proof positive that no matter what your resume is as a coach you can’t always pull a starter out of your ass. No more Josh Barretts please. Just real football players.
MARK BARRON Safety – Alabama Build: 6-1 213 lbs 40 Yd Dash: N/A (Injured) Projection: Late 1st Round Years Started: 3 Patriots Fit: Free Safety / Strong Safety Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACKS
INT
PASS DEFENDED
2011
68-43 UA
5
1
2
7
When the 2011 season came to a close a lot of people had Alabama’s Mark Barron pegged as a 2nd rounder. I did too in my 1st Bowl Game Watchlist. Well now that everyone has had a chance to digest the tape on Barron and the tides have turned. Despite being a consensus first rounder some people seem to think that he gets a 1st round bump because of how lax the safety class is again this year. This is bullshit. Watch Barron play and you’re gonna see a complete safety: a guy who hits hard, doesn’t shy from contact, and can actually cover. He’s maybe not a once in a lifetime Ed Reed type but I see a lot of parallels to Patrick Chung, Bob Sanders, or WF’s apt comparison to Adrian Wilson. Analysts might not want to recognize this but scouts will, and Barron will be off the boards mid way through the 1st.
Barron’s critics are going to say that he benefited from a high powered Alabama defense, and maybe its true to some extent. But you don’t last in a program like Alabama’s by disappearing. Down to down Barron wins the matchups he needs to win. Look at the trajectory he takes to the ball carrier consistently. Here’s some footage of his junior year:
At 1:21 he goes head to head with Marcus Lattimore who out-weighs Barron by about 20 lbs. He drops his hips, fires with his legs and turns a potential 5 or 6 yard gain to a no-gain situation. He was laying big hits into SC’s running backs alldaylong.
Barron does his best work as a run stuffer and big gain stopper, but he knows when to gamble on a throw. At 5:13 in the clip above he reads the RB on a wheel route and knows exactly where the ball is going to be. He gets a little over zealous and it costs him the interception, but its a great display of instinct. He pulled off a similar play against LSU last year where he exploited another telegraphed throw that lead to Alabama’s second field goal. For a guy known mostly as a
Let me use a downside to Barron’s game to make a point about his upside
Laying out WRs and RB are his game, but Barron has an occasional tendency to struggle with bigger tight ends and will have to resort to tugging on them in coverage. At 2:20 against Miss State you see Barron attempt a rare shoulder check to bring down 240 lb senior TE Marcus Green. Something like this would get me really down on a player if I was an NFL scout or GM. In some cases I might even drop them from my board all together. But Barron shows no fear going forward. At 3:25 he finds Green again in space and drives through him to stop him short of the first. I extra love it considering Mississippi St still had a shot, and that stop eventually forced them to go for it on 4th and 1.
DRAFT PICK/VALUE GRADE: B
The secret is out on Barron. There’s one safety and one safety only that is a worthwhile bet to make a week 1 roster and all 32 teams know that its Mark Barron. Getting Barron means most likely leapfrogging the Jets at 16, maybe the Eagles (who still don’t have an answer for Brian Dawkins) at 15, and the ever impulsive Cowboys at 14. That’s a lot of draft stock that needs to move in a direction that coach Belichick usually doesn’t go: UP.
HARRISON SMITH Safety – Notre Dame Build: 6-2 213 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.56 Combine Projection: Late 1st Round Years Started: 3.5 (Split sophomore year between safety/linebacker) Patriots Fit: Free Safety / Strong Safety Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACKS
INT
PASS DEFENDED
2011
90-53 UA
3
0
0
10
The rules for creating any mock draft are simple: Highlight all the white guys and try and find a way for the Patriots to draft all of them. The subtle racism of believing all the white prospects are smarter but less athletic than their African American counterparts is more or less clockwork around draft time. I’d like to believe scouts don’t buy into this B.S., and plenty of players both black and white have been mistaken for smart. Either way Notre Dame’s Harrison Smith put on a great display of athleticism at the Combine and is one of 14 DB’s the Patriots have met with privately as of today.
Smith is a 5th year senior who started 3 years at safety and split starts in 2009 between safety and linebacker. He’s a Charlie Weis recruit, a 2 time team captain, and the only player in Notre Dame history to register more than 200 tackles, 15 tackles for loss and 15 pass breakups in a career. He had 7 INTs in 2010 including 3 against Miami in the Sun Bowl. 2011 was a definite drop in stats, but he still tackles well and defends the deep ball well.
He plays a little differently than a guy like Mark Barron. He gambles a little more to try and break up passes. And he leaves his feet to make tackles a little more. Either way watch the way he attacks ball carriers straight on against Stanford:
In general he spends a lot of time up in the box, which is expected for a guy with a linebacker background. What he brings with him to DB is the ability to actually shed blocks, and get to the ball carrier. This class has had some of the most anemic block shedding I’ve ever seen across the board, so quite frankly this is a huge plus for Smith who plays the ball like a linebacker.
DRAFT PICK/VALUE: B-
With all respect to Smith, as soon as Barron comes off the board he becomes the consolation prize. That means going after him early in the 2nd round. That means if the Pats move one of their 1st’s and end up in the top half of the 2nd then Smith has to be that pick. And that, my readers, means no Jerel Worthy, no Janoris Jenkins, no Chandler Jones and a plethora of other defensive talent that is expected to be on the board around that time. I think he’s going to be a good football player and has NFL level drive and instincts, but he’s not worth the stock its going to take to draft him if that means trading into the early 2nd round.
MARKELLE MARTIN Safety – Oklahoma State Build: 6-1 207 lbs 40 Yd Dash: DNP (Torn Meniscus) Projection: Late 2nd – 3rd Round Years Started: 3 years Patriots Fit: Free Safety Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
FF
INT
PASS DEFENDED
2011
74-59 UA
5
2
0
11
You want your value pick? This is your guy. Markelle Martin was originally considered by a lot of people to be a comparable prospect to Barron and Smith. During the offseason he revealed that he had a knee injury that kept him out of the Combine. There was talk that he would recover in time for the OSU Pro Day on April 7th, in face Martin himself Tweeted that he planned on working out at the beginning of April. Instead he showed up on crutches. I’m inclined to think that it isn’t a super serious injury if he thought he’d be working out. It’s a red flag though considering he missed spring practices before the 2011 season with a shoulder injury despite starting all 13 games for the Cowboys.
Forget about the unpleasant stuff for a minute and watch #10 play:
0:58 He’s not the most consistent player, but he’s well coached enough to get the point that you need to drop your hips and lay into a guy waist high to stop him in the open. He can make a must-make tackle when it comes down to it. At 2:15 he’s got the speedy Keola Antolin out in the open, and comes up with a sprawling tackle that may have saved a 50 yard touchdown. He’s also one of the few real Free Safety prospects in a class full of strong safeties and guys who generally just hang around in the box and jump on runningbacks after the linemen do all the work.
DRAFT PICK/VALUE GRADE: A- Markelle Martin at 63rd overall, in my humble opinion, is a steal. Martin at 48 is less of a steal but still a worthwhile option. Martin is the value alternative to Smith and a guy the Pats need ot seriously consider if we’re going to patch up the defense with the first 4 picks. BUT, and this is a Terrence Knighton sized BUTT… if they haven’t tapped any of the D-Line or Linebacer talent in this class by 48 I’d pass on Markelle Martin and Harrison Smith and take my chances at 63 and beyond.
BRANDON TAYLOR Safety – LSU Build: 5-11 209 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.58 Pro Day Projection: 3rd – 4th Round Years Started: 2 1/2 years Patriots Fit: Free Safety Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
SACK
INT
PASS DEFENDED
2011
71-39 UA
7.5
1
2
5
On paper Brandon Taylor looks like a steal. Good athlete, very well composed, good bend to his technique. He can stop and go nicely and even looked physical and well rounded in the Senior Bowl practices. The simple fact of the matter is, he’s big big biiiiig liability tackling in space. He’s a drag down tackler who takes a sideways trajectory to the ball carrier. Just look at his game vs. Alabama:
I won’t even bother pointing out plays. The evidence is everywhere.
DRAFT PICK/VALUE GRADE: D He’s a talented athlete, and he plays with a ton of intensity so he gets a few points from me. That fact that he was a part of a dominant LSU defense is going to get him some late 2nd early 3rd consideration for such a talented athlete. But seriously New Englanders have suffered through enough talented athletes that can’t stop anybody in the open. It’s the whole point of a cover 2. If Belichick thinks that’s coachable then prove it. He hasn’t turned one cover guy into a real tackler yet, so I’m not buying it. No thanks.
TONY DYE Safety – UCLA Build: 5-10 201 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 4.56 Pro Day Projection: 3rd – 5th Round Years Started: 2 1/2 years Patriots Fit: Free Safety / Strong Safety Relevant Stats:
YEAR
TACKLES
TFL
FF
INT
PASS DEFENDED
2010
96-59 UA
3.5
0
1
9
UCLA’s Tony Dye had a super promising 2010 and was expected by some to emerge as a first round pick for 2012. Things didn’t quite work out that way as a neck injury spoiled Dye’s 2011 campaign. To put Dye in perspective: he played on the same defense as Rahim Moore the Bronco’s 2nd round pick and the first safety off the board in 2011 and yet Dye was the Defensive MVP of UCLA that year. The guy was beloved at UCLA and was seen by a lot of people as the leader of the Bruins defense.
RED FLAGS I’ve already mentioned his injury, but the biggest red flag for me is that he was declared academically ineligible to play in the bowl game against Illinois. Given all the shit college athletes get away with, and considering the single digit Wonderlic scores “academically eligible” guys like Morris Claiborne are capable of I’ve really got to wonder how bad you have to fuck up to get academically disqualified.
As far as the injuries go a neck injury hampered his production in his senior year. Originally it was diagnosed as a stinger, but then was thought to be more serious and UCLA appeared ready to shut him down for the season in early October. He fought his way back though, and got medical clearance to play in time to play 2 late season games before injuring his ankle against USC.
His play is hot and cold:
He makes transitions flat footed sometimes and his instincts are occasionally suspect. 3:34, 6:38 as examples. These are coachable items that can be corrected which make it an extra shame that we didn’t get to see him develop. At 1:52 you see the potential to be a viable QB-reading DB when he picks off an ugly pass from potential 2012 1st overall pick Matt Barkley.
Throughout the footage of the Kansas State game he puts some pretty good licks on current Miami Dolphins slouch Daniel Thomas. But 6:38 is an interesting example as Dye makes a bad read and gives up an open seam to Thomas, but he tracks down Thomas on the other side of the field and makes a one-handed tackle on his own.
DRAFT PICK/VALUE GRADE: C+ Without seeing his medical records its pretty tough to grade him. Neck injuries can be career killers (unless apparently you can eat enough Oreos to stave off bone spurs). But if he’s at all healthy this might be the Pats last chance to sneak a value pick out of the draft in maybe the 4th or 5th round. If it comes down to that then set your expectations nice and low, and maybe we’ll be surprised. We’ve definitely made dumber picks, of less need, with higher draft spots so who knows.
I don’t know what to tell you about McMillian. I absolutely can’t sit here and pretend that I watch Maine football games. McMillain was part of the 2nd group of DB’s at the Combine, and thus the last group of athletes to work out. Unfortunately that meant that Bucky Brooks and the gang at NFL Network had already mentally checked out of the drills. Every time McMillian was running his drills the coverage shifted to Rich Eisen running his annual 6 minute 40 yard dash. So I have practically no usable notes of McMillain.
From the little I’ve seen and ascertained about McMillian’s time at Maine he was a 3 year starter and was used mostly as a box safety (as evidenced by the 11.5 TFL and high UA tackle total). He’s a pretty remarkable athlete that earned him a special look from Patriots scouts on his Pro Day. CAA schools don’t usually produce a lot of guys that can run a 4.42 and pull off a 36″ vertical leap. He also played quarterback and DB in high school, a fact I find very intriguing, as well as being on the Hillside NJ High academic honor roll.
What else is intriguing is that his FS counterpart Trevor Coston is an equally interesting late round option. Profootball Weekly has him running a 4.42 40, with a 43″ vertical leap (3 inches shy of the NFL Combine record). Like McMillian he was also a former QB/DB mix in high school, and also an honor roll student. Where McMillain excelled in tackle numbers Coston managed 6 INTs and 9 passes defended. Also if you read the Black Bears season stats closely enough you’ll come across a sophomore DE named Michael Cole who blocked 4, yes 4, kicks in 2011.
Coston didn’t receive a Combine invite, but is getting residual looks from scouts who came to came to the Maine Pro Day to look at McMillian. I’ve heard reports that the Jets have brought in Coston for workouts on his own.
Take your pick, who do you like better #1 McMillain or #3 Coston:
DRAFT PICK/VALUE GRADE: D I’ll give it a D for Dude, how the hell should I know? At the very least you can get a special teams player out of either of these guys. Until I see them in training camp I don’t know how they’re going to react to the NFL. But they’re as talented athletically as any of the unimpressive butt-double safeties you’ll find in rounds 4-7 in this draft.
MICHAEL BROCKERS DT – LSU Build: 6-5 316 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 5.18 Combine Projection: Late 1st – Mid 2nd Years Started: 1 Patriots Fit: 3-4 DE, Nickel/Dime DT Relevant Stats:
Season
Tackles
TFL
Sacks
QB Hurries
INTs
2011
47 (23 Solo)
10
2
4
1
For quite some time now people have been talking about Michael Brockers to the Patriots. The more I watched Brockers play, the less I got it. I honestly, truly, seriously do not get the big deal with Michael Brockers. The Patriots have hosted Brockers on an official visit, and as of right now is one of the few big name DT/DE’s that they’ve taken a public interest in. Analysts have gushed over Brockers enough to make me second guess what I thought I knew about him. My mind remains unchanged. Mike Mayock has been the only one to downgrade Brockers even a little, bumping him from the #1 DT to his #3 in favor of Dontari Poe, and my #1 DT Fletcher Cox. I think a lot of times analysts scouts and fans just get obsessed with a big name. Well that’s not what I’m about so I decided to put together a quick experiment, and invite you to take:
THE MICHAEL BROCKERS CHALLENGE: If you’re reading this blog, you’re undoubtedly a draft genius. Right? Maybe you think I’m insane, and Brockers is the next Reggie White. Fine. Find someone who isn’t as brilliant as you and set this up for them. The idea here is to watch someone form an unbiased opinion of how effective Michael Brockers is versus other highly ranked DT/DE prospects, and how bad you want him on the Patriots after you learn what you learn. Here’s how I did it.
SETUP: I cued up Youtube clips of Brockers vs Mississippi State, and Brandon Thompson vs Georgia Tech. I showed these clips to someone I knew would have no preconceived notions about draft stock, and would be forced to look at the raw showing of just which player was more effective. The mystery subject (in the interest of disclosure) therefore, was my girlfriend. She has a super limited knowledge of football, but is a brilliant biologist who I thought would appreciate the empirical nature of all this. Plus her father has been a Pats season ticket holder since the 70′s.
HYPOTHESIS:The subject, without knowing which player was supposed to be ranked higher would be forced to look at the sheer impact each player had on the game. In my opinion Thompson was clearly the more effective player, while Brockers mostly took up space in between making a couple of big plays. I hypothesized that the subject would reach the same conclusion.
METHOD: Both clips were viewed for approximately two minutes (scientist or not I wasn’t going to keep her attention with football for too long). The Thompson clip was first. The Brockers clip was second. The names of neither player were disclosed at the beginning to circumvent any accidental name recognition. They were identified solely as #98 and #90. I also avoided eye contact with my subject to avoid any body language cues that would effect her decision.
VARIABLES: For argument’s sake Georgia Tech’s offense (yardage wise) was ranked 18th in the FBS (5964 yds), and Mississippi State’s offense was 72nd (4643 yds). Again, neither of these facts were disclosed.
RESOURCES: Thompson vs GA Tech
Brockers vs Miss State
RESULTS: The results were consistent with the hypothesis. When asked which player appeared to be more effective the subject picked Thompson without any hesitation. When I asked what made him seem more effective the subject answered, “He was plowing through everybody and trying to make tackles…” I followed up by asking what made the 2nd player, Brockers, seem less effective and the subject answered: “That guy didn’t even look like he knew what he was doing.” When I informed the subject that the player in the 2nd clip was considered a consensus 1st round pick she reiterated “That looked like he had no idea what was going on. All he was doing was standing around slapping at people.”
WHAT DO WE LEARN FROM THIS? Something, and nothing I guess. While I certainly wouldn’t call Brockers clueless, I’m really at a loss when I try to come up with a reason why he’s a first round lock. First of all, he’s a one year starter and technically a sophomore. Brockers red shirted as a true freshman, had 1 start in 2010, and finally started all 14 games for LSU in 2011. He turns 22 in December. Typically guys who declare for the draft at this stage had a monster year statistically. Brockers is coming off a year with 2 sacks, 4 QB hurries, and 10 TFL.
You could very easily argue that both Vince Wilfork, and Richard Seymour had a lot in common with Brockers. Wilfork was technically a 1 year starter, and Seymour managed only 2 sacks in his final season at Georgia. Wilfork, however, had 6 sacks and 64 tackles his final year at the U. Seymour started 25 games at UGA and had 35 QB pressures career. I’m really wondering why Brockers is even declaring for the draft right now. He obviously has more room to develop.
Sack totals aren’t everything. I’ll say it a million times with interior D-linemen, but show me one play from the BCS Championship where Brockers comes anywhere near the quarterback:
He swats a ball down, blocks a kick, and provides some decent run defense. But at what point does he make a serious difference in the game? Brockers got credit for half a TFL for the game. 7 other LSU players had TFLs in that game. The LSU defense did their job against the Crimson Tide. If they hadn’t put together the most impotent offensive showing I’ve maybe ever seen in college football, they might have won. But down-to-down Brockers was a non-factor. He gets frozen out consistently on his pass rush. He spends way too much time hand fighting, and dancing with linemen. He doesn’t demonstrate any real aptitude for bull rushing like you’d need out of a 3-4 DE.
I get it. He’s a freak. He’s 6-5, 316 with 35″ arms. He can hang out all day and swat down passes (2 PD career) and that’d be great to have as a defensive end. He’s still young and has all the physical tools in the world and there’s a chance the right team could mold him into something special. But that’s all speculation. Until then he’s a physically talented guy who benefited from the nation’s #2 college defense. Test out the Michael Brockers challenge on a friend or family member. Or if you’re so inclined: take it yourself. You might learn something.
PLEASE POST YOUR OWN CHALLENGE RESULTS IN THE COMMENTS SECTION
BRANDON THOMPSON DT/DE – Clemson Build: 6-2 314 lbs 40 Yd Dash: 5.00 Pro Day Projection: Mid 2nd Years Started: 3 Patriots Fit: 3-4 DE, Nickel/Dime DT Relevant Stats:
Season
Tackles
TFL
Sacks
QB Hurries
2011
77 (46 Solo)
8
2.5
18
I watched a handful of Clemson games this year mostly interested in the explosive RB Andre Ellington. The more I watched, however, the more I found myself unable to ignore the work of the big bruiser up front on defense #98 DT Brandon Thompson. His numbers were never anything huge, but by in large he was a menace and was the one guy consistently putting opposing offensive lines in disarray. Maybe it’s just because I always wanted to be a big fat DT gut buster instead of a tall lanky handsome dude, but in my eyes his talent eclipses that of his teammate potential first rounder Andre Branch. Numbers wise, it won’t make sense (he maxed out at 2.5 sacks in 2011) but as we look at him up close I promise you’ll see something special. I’ll spoil it for you right now and tell you I think he’s a Belichick style player. He’s an elephant type lineman that has his fun roughing up blockers and counting on his teammates to exploit the opportunities he creates.
POSITIVES:
So what am I looking for in a defensive lineman? As a guy who has never been naturally good at anything, I appreciate athletes with something to prove. Thompson was ranked the #3 DT in the nation coming out of high school. But the highly recruited Thompson had a rude awakening when Clemson strength coaches could only get 13 225 lb bench reps out of him. His worth ethic transformed dramatically over the next 4 years, earning him Clemson’s 2011 summer Strength Training award, and the nickname “Yams” because of the size of his quads. He would eventually put up 34 bench reps at the Combine (and is claimed to PR at 36).
History repeats itself, especially in football. D-Line is a team effort so when you’ve got great production from the edge you’ve got to look at how much the linemen inside had to do with it. Clemson has had back to back great seasons from it’s DE position, Andre Branch 10.5 sacks in 2011 and Da’Quan Bowers 15.5 sacks in 2010. His effect on the line is obvious: Thompson eats up the double teams giving the edge rusher a 1 on 1 with the OT or TE. Look for yourself.
Andre Branch has 4 sacks in this game. At 2:29 Thompson is occupying 2 blockers leaving Branch on an island with a TE. Naturally the stronger faster DE beats the TE and forces the early pass. Same thing again at 3:06, Thompson draws the double that sets up Branch for a sack. Without getting too far into it Thompson had the same trickle down effect on Da’Quan Bowers’ who had considerable praise for his teammate during last year’s draft:
“Brandon Thompson made my job a whole lot easier,” Bowers said. “The amount of double teams he took on to get me the chance to rush one-on-one. He is part of the reason why I had 15.5 sacks my junior year. He is going to demand double teams because he is not going to get blocked one-on-one. Any time you can get a guy like that on your team he is going to help the whole line.”
At 314 lbs you’re going to draw some attention. Thompson gets double teamed a whole lot and I get the feeling that he likes it. But one on one battle of wills with Thompson are like dumping KFC Double Downs into the Sarlacc pit (disclaimer: Star Wars is dumb). He eats them up.
I count 22 plays in this clip of Thompson vs Maryland, and in 12 of those 22 Thompson beats his man and gets into the backfield. A handful of those were quick plays or runs opposite Thompson. Either way he’s a guy who likes to scrap, likes to handfight, and has to be accounted for.
His sack numbers aren’t there, and so there isn’t going to be a ton of publicity for him. But as far as run stuffers go for this draft and in general Thompson is outstanding. By in large he does a good job of keeping his hips square with the line of scrimmage. It’s part strength and part attention to technique. During a game vs NC State he literally had 3 linemen blocking him on a run and never lost an inch of ground. Another few examples of Thompson’s road blocking came against (again) Virginia Tech.
There are a lot of good things going on in this tape, but I wanted to focus on two things. First, he has an ability to recover even when getting blocked out. At 1:11. To me this is a big deal. An unwillingness to be blocked is what separates the Richard Seymour’s of the world from the Albert Haynesworth’s of the world. We’re looking at a guy who is habitually disruptive in terms of forcing the QB out of the pocket, or just occupying his blockers to let the linebackers make the plays. Not convinced by that? Check out 2:27 of the same game where Thompson, from the zero, gets knocked down on a cut block then hustles to stop the run on the sideline short of the first down.
Highly projected D-Line prospects get criticized year in and year out for taking plays off and giving up on blocks. Item number one that I look for are guys who aren’t content to stay blocked. Otherwise you might as well sign one of those dumbass fake football players from the Jared’s commercial (why would someone tape this?). I’m sure they could have shed blocks as well as Haynesworth in a Pats uniform.
What Thompson offers, that a lot of big D-line prospects are short on, is scheme versatility. He plays a lot of true zero technique, but has a ton of success shading off center, or lining up in the 3 gap. He’s going to get dubbed a NT by a lot of analysts, but I think he’s a much better gap penetrator and a serviceable zero tech player. Belichick has done quite a bit of shifting around with Vince Wilfork the past few years, especially last year when they were still in the base 3-4. A player like Thompson would give them someone else to occupy the nose and mis-match Wilfork on someone else.
NEGATIVES:
So remember a minute ago when I implied that sometimes a low sack total is the bi-product of team play and eating double teams? Well it can also mean you’re just not that great of a pass rusher. I’ve read a handful of “scouting reports” on Thompson that all pointed this out about #98. Often times I’ll disagree with stuff like this but there are some holes in Thompson’s pass rush game, some correctable but some he’ll have to learn to live with.
He’s not a physical freak per say, so his closing speed isn’t elite. Don’t get me wrong a 5.00 40 is impressive for a guy his size, but there’s just something off about the way he moves in space. For example:
The first play of this clip he blows up a double, shoots the 1 gap and gets the sack. Now this is the kind of play he’s capable of making on a regular basis. But watch a little further at 0:22, it’s roughly the same play only this time his change of direction is pretty sloppy and he belly flops instead of running down the quarterback. These are a couple things that are re-occurring bad habits for Thompson. There’s not being able to close on the quarterback, and for whatever reason has lots of problems staying on his feet in pursuit.
There have been questions about his overall stamina from some. By “some” I mean career draft contrarian Russ Lande who chimed in on Thompson’s otherwise impressive Pro Day that he looked gassed in his drills and will probably slide to the 3rd or 4th round. This doesn’t sit all that well with me considering Thompson played 722 snaps across 13 games, and made big plays late in games. Given how drastically his strength improved over 4 years at Clemson I’ve got to believe his work ethic is there. At least Lande was actually at this Pro Day this time. I think. Just for good measure here is our slouch in question bench pressing 495 pounds like it’s nothing.
What really troubles me is the fact that he opted out of both the 40 and the 10 yard shuttle at the Combine while he was supposedly healthy. I mean he ran an un-official 5.12 and 5.00 at the Clemson Pro Day. That’s pretty impressive for a guy his size. He also miraculously added about a foot to his broad jump at his Pro Day. If he was hiding an injury, why? If he wasn’t hiding anything he probably cost himself a nice chunk of draft stock by just being negligent. Still, I don’t see anything in his past that suggests attitude or discipline problems.
In the only game Thompson didn’t start in 2011 he played 62 snaps, hit hard on every single play, and came up with a sack that would close out Wake Forest on their final offensive possession and set up Clemson’s game winning drive. You tell me if he looks gassed by the time he pulls off the play of the game.
THE BOTTOM LINE: A big problem I see right now is that I don’t have any evidence that the Patriots had personnel present for the Clemson Pro Day, or have been in contact with Thompson at all. One guy who took the Clemson Pro Day very seriously was Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum who made a rare personal appearance this year. The Jets are rumored to be enamored with Andre Branch but we know they can’t resist drafting high on talented D-linemen. I’ll update as necessary, but as for now I think it would be absolutely insane of Belichick to not kick the tires on Thompson.
I’d put his stock in a similar place as Tyson Alualu in the 2010 draft. Everyone was thinking late 2nd, meanwhile there were teams thinking first round for him. I certainly don’t think he’ll go anywhere near Alualu’s spot, but I could see a very early 2nd round pick being used on this very talented big man. As of today NEPatriotsdraft has Michael Brockers (LSU), Anthony Jacobs (Minnesota), and Derek Wolfe (Cincinatti) listed as the only 3 defensive linemen the Pats have officially been in contact with. That list seems a entirely too sparse for my tastes.
The Patriots sent Jon Robinson, their director of college scouting, out to the Illinois Pro Day to check out Illinois DE and consensus first round pick Whitney Mercilus. So let’s get right to it. No, not Merculis’s impressive 4.63 40 time, or his 16 sacks, or his 22.5 TFL’s, or even his badass pronunciation of his last name “MERCILESS.” No, let’s get right to some good old fashioned football tedium of trending inexperienced players in Belichick drafts. Despite the big numbers Mercilus is only a 1 year starter. When you get past his outstanding triangle numbers and raw potential you’re looking at a guy who stagnated for two years in a high level program before breaking out. Yes, Whitney Mercilus lead the FBS in sacks in 2011. In fact he was held sack-less in only 2 games. Before that though the Illini DE had only 2 sacks and 2 games started on his college resume. That’s a red flag, and some analysts are going to tell you that Bill Belichick wouldn’t touch him with a background like that. And that’ll probably have you making a noose out of your Willie McGinest jersey thinking we’re never going to draft high on a pass rusher again.
Well relax. Nothing is ever cut and dry with Belichick, and if you look at his list of 1st round picks with the Patriots you’ll see why:
With 11 first round picks as head coach of the Patriots, Belichick has only drafted 2 players with fewer than 20 college starts under their belt. But he has, in fact, drafted them. You’ll note two very interesting names pop up when you see which picks had even less starting experience than Mercilus: Wilfork & Maroney. Before you groan about Maroney just remember he had a chance to be a legit feature back before back to back shoulder fractures. Meanwhile the centerpiece of Belichick’s defense remains a 14 game college starter.
While not including them in that count of 11 first rounders I did include Chung and Gronkowski in the chart (who were both high 2nd round picks) just so you can see the duality of Belichick’s draft mind. Chung was a staple in the Oregon defense for years. Meanwhile Gronk had only 2 seasons under his belt and missed his entire junior year in Arizona.
If you follow the link to the Globe’s breakdown (and do some fill-in research) you’ll also see that Belichick has also drafted 20 other players with under 20 college starts including Malcolm Williams, Matthew Slater, and Matt Cassell (remember this guy) all with 0 starts. 11 of those 20 were 6th or 7th rounders. All but 5 of them are now out of the NFL (with a few arena league guys), and only 2 of them are currently Patriots.
What does this tell us? Well, probably not much. But if you had any predispositions on whether or not BB would take a 1 year starter just know that it HAS happened before, and might just happen again.
POSITIVES: Whitney Mercilus might be green, but he’s no slouch. You absolutely cannot lazy block Mercilus and he’ll let you know that. Consider his matchup with Arizona State: 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, a forced fumble, and a pass defended.
Any time a blocker didn’t respect 85′s abilities they got burned for it, as in this fullback at 3:58. This play is one of 9 forced fumbles he managed throughout the season. In Mercilus’ own words he had a “knack” for sniffing out fumbles:
“Throughout the game I was able to watch the quarterback’s movements and just see him open up and then I just go in there and just knock it away.”
Aside from working around the edge he put those nearly 38″ arms to work causing an interception working against the interior ASU line around 2:33. This brings me to my next point.
Mercilus is a workhorse. For an “edge rusher” he doesn’t shy away from contact in the least. You won’t see the term “finesse guy” thrown around here. Like a lot of things his violent disengage is a work in progress, but most importantly you don’t see him take plays off. You don’t see him give up on a play when he gets blocked. He’s always in the mix. Watch his performance against UCLA in the Kraft Bowl and tell me his physical presence isn’t just overwhelming. He’s a relentless rusher who thrives off of 1 on 1′s and plays like he wants to make a difference.
As I’ll talk about later, some teams had success running at Mercilus earlier in the year. This was not one of those games (demonstrated here at 2:29). The UCLA RB’s managed only 62 yards and 85 was a big reason why. When he gets a blocker one on one he can set his hips to the quarterback and bull rush like very few guys in this draft class can.
What I saw out of him at the Combine impressed me. He’s one of those guys who didn’t let the pressure of the drill effect his overall instincts to be aggressive. He made big solid hits on the pads while keeping his composure. I think he’s fluid enough to work out in space and at least contain wideouts and tight ends as he would in a 3-4, and he fits the BB/Parcells prototype for outside linebackers. And for anyone who is content to watch slow Patriots OLB’s come within inches of making big plays, Mercilus actually has the speed to close on a quarterback.
Love you Ninkovich. But you’re s-l-o-w….
FUN FACT: Mercilus lost the tip of his left index finger in a weight lifting accident.
NEGATIVES: Some guys put up big sack numbers by being athletic and having a well developed pass rush arsenal. These types are pro-ready types that are on track to start week 1. Other pass rushers wake up one day and realize they’re stronger and faster than everyone and can just bludgeon linemen to death. Guess which one the One-Year-Wonder type tends to be.
In all fairness to Mercilus, he earned his sacks. He’s not a Sergio Kindle type that was able to score a sack every time the opposing team forgot to block him. His motor is great. But his technical pass rushing skills leave a lot to be desired. The bigger/stronger thing rarely flies in the NFL and gets guys like this into trouble over time. He’s got 2 real moves: the bull rush, and a spin move that’s just as likely to fool the blocker as it is to get Mercilus spun around and blocked right out of the play. Unlike a guy like Jason Pierre Paul who spent 2 years in junior colleges before his 1 and only breakout year at USF, Mercilus spent 3 years (plus a red shirt season) in a high level program. This is all he learned?
A lot of college pass rushers have under-developed technique and turn out fine in the NFL. More concerning though is the fact that setting his hips on his run blocking was also an issue for the Illini defender. In certain games, namely his matchup with the road-grader Wisconsin offensive line, he was something of a liability against the run:
There’s a very good reason why Wisconsin was #5 in the nation in rushing. They have an offensive line full of NFL ready talent that game plans towards upsetting guys like Mercilus off the line of scrimmage. Early on Mercilus loses a number of battles against #67 senior OT Josh Oglesby by getting 85′s hips offline giving him no time to react to the speedy Montee Ball. In fact, the one sack Mercilus managed was when Oglesby tripped on one of his own players. To Mercilus’s credit he improved as the game went on, and the Badgers gradually started moving the ball away from him. It wouldn’t last though and the Badgers pulled out the win by recognizing a big mismatch with their opponents best defensive player and let Ball carry it 28 times for 224 yards. The Badgers only threw 13 times the whole game (completing 10).
Penn State’s Silas Redd also ran for 137 yards against the Illini who spent a lot of time running right at Mercilus. Watch the tape for yourself. You’ll see that he just has a hard time shedding blocks against the run.
At 4:48 you’ve got Mercilus matched up with a guard out in the open and he absolutely can’t disengage from the block in time to make a play.
It’s not entirely a bad thing to say that he gets all his productivity by just out working his blockers. It does, however, speak to his potential coachability and overall discipline. He has a tendency to be jumpy on the line, and occasionally jump offsides (here against ASU and here against UCLA). It’s something that’s certainly correctable, but again speaks to his overall football maturity and discipline. Sloppy fundamentals, which he shows on and off, won’t fly with the Patriots.
Illinois seemed to think they could get away with using the big man as a DT in 3rd down situations. Nobody was fooled. Mercilus got devoured by interior linemen. And why wouldn’t he? Scrapping in the trenches with a guard is a night and day difference from trying to beat an OT around the edge. This is especially true if, again, you have no pass rush technique. All in all this isn’t a huge negative. Just don’t buy it when the analysts start saying he’s a threat to line up at DT anytime. He’s not. In fact he’s really bad at it.
THE BOTTOM LINE: I’d take Mercilus but I’m not trading inside the 20′s to get him. His production was similar to Nick Fairley’s last year at Auburn, and the one year wonder act was enough to drive him out of the top 10. Position wise I would take Mercilus over Nick Perry, but no way do I value him over Courtney Upshaw.
I think the 3-4 OLB position is what he’s made for. You don’t say this every day, but I think asking him to play in a 4 point stance his whole career is a waste of his potential. This is a guy made for beating OT’s with his hands and working around the end, not digging it out in the trenches trying to set an edge. He’s a work in progress though, and I’m worried Pats fans will get discouraged if he can’t put up 10 sacks his rookie season. In all reality he would probably play behind Ninkovich for most of 2012, another move that would enrage impatient Pats fans. Cry me a river, buttheads. If Belichick finally breaks down and drafts a guy who can get to the quarterback in the 1st round we’ve got nothing to complain about.
When you read enough sports writing you learn a certain tolerance for stupidity. Everyone is wrong sooner or later. But every once in a while you come across something so obnoxious that gets stuck in your head like a bad pop song, and you just can’t shake it. I had such an experience last week after reading the musings of one Mike Klis of the Denver Post. Klis was pretty blunt about what was bugging him, as the blog posting read: “Broncos Playoff Teams Should Officially Protest Josh McDaniels Hire in New England.”
Here we go.
Take the time to read it yourself, but the bulletpoints are:
Belichick cheated the system by bringing McDaniels on board early.
McDaniels had finished his 2011 season, and shouldn’t be able to jump ship to another team.
The timing of the move is inappropriate because McDaniels has inside information on the Broncos and all the other playoff teams.
Before Klis made a stink about it this started to get some minor grumblings amongst the BELICHEAT LOLz crowd of poser football fans (you know what I’m talking about). To me it was pretty much just a passing breeze, and totally reminiscent of the 2008 draft. You know, the post spy-gate draft where Patriot haters spent all winter needling the Pats over their lost draft pick? Their inarticulate rage was priceless when the Pats showed up on draft day with the 49er’s 7th overall pick and parlayed it into Jerod Mayo. By their own casual clueless accounts of things it was as if Belichick had materialized the pick out of thin air like the evil sorcerer he is. In a word it was: hilarious. Well welcome back football neophytes. Your tears taste sweeter than ever.
“Marge, you just don’t understand football”
Before I break down what’s wrong about Klis’ logic let me make the point I really want to make.
Real sports fans beg for rivalry. They don’t just invite it, they crave it like cannibals. To me you might not find a better rival archetype than what I like to call the Prodigal Son Gone Wrong. By this I mean the prospective star who betrayed a team’s trust, sullied their organization, and then left for bigger and better things. It’s why the Cavaliers call out Lebron James. It’s why the Browns called out Braylon Edwards. As much as I loved him with the Patriots, it’s why Raiders fans called out Randy Moss. Maybe they traded up in life. It doesn’t matter. They’re that guy that gets boo-ed every time he comes back to his old stadium. If you love your team you want a piece of that guy no matter what.
There was no crying when Roger Clemens wound up with the New York Yankees. The man was the pride of the organization for years. He almost won a world series here. And if he had played it right he might have gone down in history as one of the most loved Red Sox ever. But he was a self obsessed asshole. There were no teary-eyed speeches in the streets of Boston lamenting a league where one team can out-spend 29 others and manufacture a championship. No. Never. We put that aside for another day and the battlecry was: We want Clemens! We want the Yankees! We want to show that cocky bloated fatass jerk that if he had a heart he couldn’ve won a World Series in Boston. It didn’t always work out, but no self respecting Red Sox fan worth his red and white would have ever wanted the 2003 ALCS to end with anything but a Clemens-Martinez deathmatch in game 7. That’s just the way it had to be.
Clemens throwing at Manny Ramirez in one of his many heroic Fenway returns
Josh McDaniels walked into the Broncos organization a budding superstar head coach in January of 2009 and had reduced it to a pile of smoldering orange dust by November of 2010. He had a Pro Bowl wide receiver-quarterback pair in Cutler and Marshall. He had offensive prospects overflowing off his depth chart. And he had a team and a city who believed in him. But somehow he sunk the whole ship in a manner that seemed deliberate every step of the way in an 11-17 mess and a clandestine master plan that never materialized. He ruined that team. McDaniels is Denver’s Roger Clemens. If he’s not, he deserves to be. I loved McDaniels as an OC and welcome him back to Foxboro with open arms, but if Broncos Nation had a pair they’d know where their priorities lie. There should be no whining. No rationalizing. No pleading. There should be a collective cry, audible from 2 timezones away, to stick this game up McDaniels’ ass. As a sports fan you cannot convince me otherwise. If the Broncos fans and media had their minds right they would salivate over the chance, no matter how tacitly or even indirectly to compete against Josh McDaniels and rise above the disservice he did their organization.
For these reasons the woe-is-us conspiracy theory of writers like Mike Klis offends me. It offends me that instead of a rivalry I get a piss poor argument from a guy who is supposed to be a professional sports writer. Say what you want about the Ryan era Jets but at least they know how to hype a game up. This is crybabying at its lowest degree. We the fans have been robbed of what should have been a legitimate buildup for this game. Instead I’ve got to listen to this, and ESPN’s fake data on how much we love Tim Tebow.
Back to the claims of cheating:
If anyone would care for a history lesson, this isn’t the first time a move like this was made. In fact, it happened pretty close to home for Denver fans with the former youngest head coach in football: Mike Shanahan. Shanny made his mark in the NFL as an offensive coordinator for the Broncos from 1984 – 1987 before taking his first head coaching job with the then Los Angeles Raiders. He bombed in LA and was fired in his second season following a 1-3 start. He was immediately picked up that same season and hired as an offensive assistant (any of this starting to sound familiar?) by none other than the Denver Broncos. According to the Denver Post, the same Denver Post that condemned the evil cheating Belichick last week, this move was largely uncontroversial at the time. We’re talking about 2 teams in the same division here. The Broncos played the Raiders 9 weeks later (and lost) before going to the Super Bowl that year. A move in the same division with practically an entire season left to play is acceptable, but the Denver media still has the nerve to condemn the Patriots? How about we watch who we’re calling cheaters Denver folks…
By calling for the league to butt in on this situation assumes that playoff teams should be punished for making the playoffs. The hiring and firing of coaches and staff begins immediately after the regular season. Unlike player free agents there’s no waiting around. There’s no ready, set, hire. The Patriots knew they were losing their OC. Are they seriously expected to be held to a different set of standards because they made the playoffs? Are they supposed to wait until March when all the other candidates have been picked through to go shopping for a coordinator? Absolutely not. They knew who they wanted. McDaniels knew where he wanted to go. He hasn’t coached in Denver in over a year. He hasn’t coached in the AFC in over a year. John Fox clearly abandoned the offense McDaniels installed in Denver. There should be no ethical tie-up about filling a personnel void just because of a coincidence.
As far as the “timing” of the move, as Klis brought up in an interview with WEEI the whole football loving world knew a week before the move was official that McDaniels was on his way to Foxboro. Where was Mike Klis during all this? Profootballtalk reported DAYS before the Steelers/Broncos game that the deal was unofficially done. Where were the Denver fans? Where was the Denver media? They get no free pass on this from me, and they certainly don’t get the right to pretend that this was a chess move from Belichick to match up against the Broncos. No one knew they were even playing Denver yet. I’m a grown man. Don’t tell me things that don’t make sense.
And then there’s perhaps my favorite part of all:
And it’s not just the Broncos who should cry foul. Among playoff teams, McDaniels’ Rams also played this season the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers (twice) from the NFC, and Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers from the AFC…That’s eight playoff teams that have just suffered a competitive disadvantage, however small, against the Pats.
With lines like this you start to wonder just what does Klis want? As if this would all be a big bowl of strawberry ice cream if the Pats had hired an assistant who somehow hadn’t coached against the NFC West, NFC South, NFC East, NFC North, AFC West, or AFC North this year. Not only that but this mystery hire would have had lived in a vacuum where the only football he gets to see is a perpetual Buccaneers – Seahawks game locked in infinite overtime. It’s called game film. Any NFL team with access to game film, or any fan for that matter with access to satellite TV, could have watched the 10 remaining playoff teams play every game and seen exactly what McDaniels saw. Gone here is the issue of a former coach swapping sides. Now it’s a crime to have even watched a football game.
I’ll go out on this issue with Klis’ closing line,
“Come on, Mr. Goodell. Exercise those commissioner power and put a stop to this.”
(haha just noticed the typo, cool editing bro). Please Roger Goodell. Make Belichick fix this. Make him march into his office. Make him fire McDaniels. Make him hire Raphael Belliard and Kurt Rambis, or anyone else with zero exposure whatsoever to the 8 football teams still active right now as his interim offensive assistants. Please Mr. Goodell save the Broncos, because the rules are the rules until they work against your team. This is a desperate chance to bring up Spygate, and to install a built in excuse in the event of a superior football team beating a gimmicky one trick pony that just happens to have a quarterback that appeals to poser football fans that think praying for something as superficial as a football game is an example worth setting.
And if you’re looking for a piece of inside information on Tim Tebow, here’s a factoid you don’t need game tape to figure out: God doesn’t give a shit about football.
Bowl season is here. And if you haven’t watched any college football this year it’s your chance to sit down and pick out some players you’d like to see in the NFL next year. It’s also a chance to see which players rise to the occasion, and which players finally lay an egg against decent competition. I’ll be keeping a running quick list of guys I think are worth paying attention to.
Brandon Jenkins – DE/LB Florida State (Junior) Build: 6-3 265 lbs Relevant Stats: 20.5 sacks in 2 years starting Early Projection: 1st round Bowl Game: Champs Sports Bowl v Notre Dame Dec. 29 5:30 ET
I had the pleasure of watching Jenkins in person when the Seminoles beat up on BC earlier this year and he’s been on my radar ever since. He’s a big, super aggressive player with a T-Rex lower body that gives him a lot of speed and power. He played as a DE at FSU, but just watching him play makes me think he has 3-4 OLB written all over him.
Vinny Curry – DE/LB Marshall (Senior) Build: 6-5 242 lbs Relevant Stats: 3 Year Starter, 11 Sacks in senior year, 7 FF career Early Projection: 2nd round Bowl Game: Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl v Florida INTL Dec. 20 8:00 ET
Curry has good numbers and a good build to be a pass rushing DE probably best suited for a 4-3. It’s early on so I might change my mind on that but he’s considered one of the better DE’s in the draft and for the moment seems poised to go in the early 2nd round. Curry is a guy whose name has been popping up for the last 2 years as a future Pats target. He’s strong and technical but right now I’m not nearly as impressed with him as I was Jabaal Sheard a year ago. The same Jabaal Sheard that I begged and pleaded for Belichick to draft and has 7/5 sacks already in Cleveland.
Mark Barron – Safety Alabama (Senior) Build: 6-2 218 lbs Relevant Stats: 3 Year Starter, 12 career INTs, 61 tackles senior year Early Projection: 2nd round Bowl Game: AllState BCS Championship Jan. 9 8:30 ET
No secret. The Pats have to draft a safety in April. When we dumped Merriweather and Sanders I joked that Chung was apparently playing the entire back end of the secondary by himself. Lo and behold the joke was on me because nobody has played a goddamn thing at safety in weeks. The guy I’m most intrigued by is USC’s TJ McDonald, but he won’t be appearing in any bowl games. The two biggest names left floating around in 2nd round talk are Mark Barron and Robert Lester both of the Alabama Crimson Tide. In fact pretty much the entire Tide secondary could be off the board by the end of the 2nd round. Lester had the better numbers a year ago, but on tape I think Barron is the keeper. I think he might be the more aggressive of the pair, and to me shows a lot of parallel’s to Patrick Chung.
Kendall Wright – Wide Receiver Baylor (Senior) Build: 5-10 190 lbs Relevant Stats: 3 Year Starter, 1572 yards 13 TDs as a senior Early Projection: 2nd round Bowl Game: Valero Alamo Bowl Dec 29 9:00 ET
In Wright’s senior year at Baylor he averaged:
131 yards a game 8.4 rec a game 1.08 TD a game 15.6 yards per reception
You’re gonna hear a lot of talk about the Patriots needing to go out and find a deep threat wideout who is going to “stretch the field” because Brady’s numbers are obviously in the toilet without one. While I did point out last year that Belichick was very quietly shopping around for 6-4, 6-5 sideline threat wideouts why not address the obvious? If Bill O’Brien couldn’t draw up a deep passing game for Randy Moss, who exactly is he supposed to make one work for? The Pats will be shopping for Deion Branch’s understudy, not Randy Moss’ replacement. Kendall Wright was a yardage machine. He was Baylor’s leading receiver by a wide margin in a very good passing offense. He caught at least 1 pass in all 39 collegiate games he appeared in, and was named by CBS Sports as one of the Top Ten Most Exciting Players In College Sports. He went only 3 games this year without a TD and still managed 316 yards total in those 3 games. Just keep an eye on him.
So Vick sat the game out with 2 broken ribs. This is in spite of the fact that Tony Romo played with broken ribs and a punctured lung earlier this year. Congrats Vick, you’re less of a man than Tony Romo. For anyone who would still like to donate to Braveheart Pitbull Rescue in honor of Michael Vick still being an unforgivable scumbag on the field or not:
VINCE YOUNG HAD: 2 SACKS, 2 QB KNOCKDOWNS, AND 1 INT = 5 PITBULL POINTS
PLEASE TALLY YOUR DONATIONS ACCORDINGLY AND CLICK THE LINK BELOW TO DONATE:
FUN FACT: Mercilus lost the tip of his left index finger in a weight lifting accident.
“Marge, you just don’t understand football”
Clemens throwing at Manny Ramirez in one of his many heroic Fenway returns
